David H. Romer

Working Papers

• NBER Recession Dates: Strengths, Weaknesses, and a Modern Upgrade [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, August 2020.

Reprints

• Did the Federal Reserve's 2020 Policy Framework Limit Its Response to Inflation? Evidence and Implications for the Framework Review [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2024. Posted with the permission of Brookings Institution Press.
• Lessons from History for Successful Disinflation [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, Journal of Monetary Economics, NBER Conference Issue: Inflation in the Covid Era and Beyond, November 2024. Open Access. Online Appendix A: Data [PDF], August 2024. Online Appendix B: Narrative Evidence on Commitment [PDF], August 2024. Online Appendix C: News Reports on Commitment [PDF], August 2024. Online Appendix D: Days Used in the High-Frequency Analysis [PDF], August 2024. Online Appendix E: Narrative Evidence on the Ends of Disinflationary Episodes [PDF], August 2024.
• Presidential Address: Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Review, June 2023. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association. Online Appendix A: Narrative Evidence [PDF], April 2023. Online Appendix B: Robustness [PDF], March 2023.
• A Social Insurance Perspective on Pandemic Fiscal Policy: Implications for Unemployment Insurance and Hazard Pay [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2022. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association. Online Appendix [PDF], October 2021.
• In Praise of Confidence Intervals [PDF], AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2020. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association. Online Appendix [PDF], January 2020.
• Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises: How It Matters and Why [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2019. Posted with the Permission of Brookings Institution Press. Online Appendix A: Extension of the Measure of Financial Distress [PDF], May 2019. Online Appendix B: Narrative Evidence on the Motivation for Fiscal Policy in Crisis Episodes [PDF], May 2019.
• Why Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of Financial Crises [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, Economica, January 2018.
• New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Review, October 2017. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association. Appendix A: Derivation of the New Measure of Financial Distress [PDF], May 2017. Appendix B: Additional Evidence on the Timing of Distress in Key Episodes [PDF], May 2017. Appendix C: Robustness of the Estimates of the Effect of Financial Distress on Output [PDF], May 2017.
• Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Increases, 1952-1991 [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, October 2016. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association. Appendix A: Description of Social Secuity Benefit Increases, 1952-1991 [PDF], March 2016. Appendix B: Supplemental Figures [PDF], March 2016.
• The Incentive Effects of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, August 2014. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association. Online Appendix of Narrative Evidence: A Narrative Analysis of Interwar Tax Changes [PDF]; Online Appendix on Data and Computations [PDF].
• Preventing the Next Catastrophe: Where Do We Stand? [PDF], in George Akerlof, Olivier Blanchard, David Romer, and Joseph Stiglitz, eds., What Have We Learned? Macroeconomic Policy after the Crisis (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2014), final pre-publication version.
• The Most Dangerous Idea in Federal Reserve History: Monetary Policy Doesn't Matter [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, May 2013. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association. Online Appendix of Sources and Documentation. [PDF]
• The Missing Transmission Mechanism in the Monetary Explanation of the Great Depression [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, May 2013. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association.
• What Have We Learned about Fiscal Policy from the Crisis? [PDF], in Olivier J. Blanchard, David Romer, A. Michael Spence, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, eds., In the Wake of the Crisis: Leading Economists Speak Out (Cambridge: MIT Press), 2012, final pre-publication version.
• A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC [PDF], Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, August 2010, final pre-publication version.
• The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks [PDF] , with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Review, June 2010. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association.
• Online Appendix of Narrative Evidence: A Narrative Analysis of Postwar Tax Changes [PDF].
• Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending [PDF], with Christina Romer, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2009. Posted with the permission of Brookings Institution Press.
• The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value? [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, May 2008. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association.
• Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football [PDF], Journal of Political Economy, April 2006. Posted with the permission of the University of Chicago Press. Expanded version [PDF].
• A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Review, September 2004. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association.
• Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair: Lessons from History [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2004. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association.
• Inflation and the Informativeness of Prices [PDF], with L. Ball, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, April 2003. Posted with the permission of the Ohio State University Press.
• Misconceptions and Political Outcomes [PDF]. Economic Journal, January 2003. Posted with the permission of Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
• The Evolution of Economic Understanding and Postwar Stabilization Policy [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, in Rethinking Stabilization Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2002.
• A Rehabilitation of Monetary Policy in the 1950's [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, May 2002. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association.
• Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, American Economic Review, June 2000. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association.
• Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve [PDF], Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2000. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association.
• Does Trade Cause Growth? [PDF], with Jeffrey A. Frankel, American Economic Review, June 1999. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association.

Selected Reprints of Pre-1999 Papers

• Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989. Posted with the permission of MIT Press.
• Real Rigidities and the Non-Neutrality of Money [Link to JSTOR], with Laurence Ball, Review of Economic Studies, April 1990. Requires JSTOR access.
• A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth [PDF], with N. Gregory Mankiw and David N. Weil, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1992. Posted with the permission of MIT Press.
• Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence [PDF], Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 1993. Posted with the permission of MIT Press.
• The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off [PDF], with Laurence Ball and N. Gregory Mankiw, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1988, No. 1, 1-65. Posted with the permission of Brookings Institution Press.
• What Ends Recessions? [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994. Posted with the permission of MIT Press.
• Rational Asset-Price Movements without News [PDF], American Economic Review, December 1993. Posted with the permission of the American Economic Association.

Advanced Macroeconomics, 5th Edition, April 2018

• Sample chapter: Chapter 10: Financial Markets and Financial Crises [PDF].
  
• Errata.
• McGraw-Hill Advanced Macroeconomics website.

Papers Not Intended for Publication

• An Overview of Regressions, [PDF]. January 2018. Revised August 2020.
• Short-Run Fluctuations, [PDF]. August 1999. Revised January 2018. Now incorporates the zero lower bound and credit market disruptions.
• A Narrative Analysis of Interwar Tax Changes [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, online appendix to "The Incentive of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era." Posted on the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy website (August 2014).
• A Narrative Analysis of Postwar Tax Changes [PDF], with Christina D. Romer, online appendix to "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks." Posted on the American Economic Review website (June 2010).

Data

• Presidential Address: Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years. Data and programs [Zip files].
• Romer and Romer dates [PDF]
• Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises: How It Matters and Why. Data and programs [Zip files]
• New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries. Data and programs [Zip files]; Supplemental materials [Zip files]; Extension of the measure of financial distress through 2017 [Excel].
• Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Increases, 1952-1991. Data and programs [Zip files]; Supplemental materials [Zip files].
• The Incentive Effects of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era. Data and programs [Zip files]; Supplemental materials [Zip files].
• A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC, Data Appendix - Updated May 2011 [Zip files, 8.6 MB].
• The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. Data and programs [Zip files, 201 KB]; Additional materials [Zip files].
• Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending. Data and programs [Zip files]
• The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value? Data Description [PDF]; Data [Excel].
• Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football
  Data and programs [Zip files]
• A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications Data description [PDF]; Data [Excel]; Narrative appendix [PDF]
• Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates Data description [PDF]; Data [Excel]
• Does Trade Cause Growth? Data description [PDF]; Data and programs [Zip files]