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Photograph of Barry Eichengreen Barry Eichengreen
George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee
Professor of Economics and Political Science


University of California, Berkeley
Department of Economics
508-1 Evans Hall, MC #3880
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
Telephone: 510.642.2772
Facsimile: 510.643.0926
Email: eichengr@econ.berkeley.edu
Follow me on Twitter: B_Eichengreen

Updated 2 September 2014

RESEARCH PAPERS
 

Yellow bear paw "History, Gravity and International Finance" (with Livia Chitu and Arnaud Mehl), Journal of International Money and Finance (2014).

Yellow bear paw "A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances" (with Menzie Chinn and Hiro Ito), Oxford Economic Papers (Summer 2014).

Yellow bear paw "Capital Controls in the 21st Century," CEPR Policy Insight (June 2014).

Yellow bear paw "International Policy Coordination: The Long View," in Robert Feenstra and Alan Taylor (eds.), Globalization in an Age of Crisis, University of Chicago Press, 2014.

Yellow bear paw "Tapering Talk: The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security Purchases on Emerging Markets", Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley and Poonam Gupta, World Bank (12 December 2013).

Yellow bear paw "Exports of Services: Indian Experience in Perspective" (with Poonam Gupta), Indian Growth and Development Review (2013).

Yellow bear paw "Fetters of Gold and Paper" (with Peter Temin), in Nicholas Crafts and Peter Fearon, The Great Depression of the 1930s: Lessons for Today (Oxford 2013).

Yellow bear paw "A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances" (with Menzie Chinn and Hiro Ito), Oxford Economic Papers (Summer 2013).

Yellow bear paw "The Eurozone Crisis: Phoenix Miracle or Lost Decade?" (with Jaeun Jung, Stephen Moch and Ashoka Mody), Journal of Macroeconomics (Autumn 2013).

Yellow bear paw "When Did the Dollar Overtake Sterling as the Leading International Currency? Evidence from the Bond Markets", Journal of Development Economics (2013).

Yellow bear paw "The Financial Crisis and Indian Banks: Survival of the Fittest?" (with Poonam Gupta), Journal of International Money and Finance (December 2013).

Yellow bear paw "Does the Federal Reserve Care About the Rest of the World?", Journal of Economic Perspectives (2013).

Yellow bear paw "Political Extremism in the 1920s and 1930s: Do the German Lessons Generalize?" (with Alan de Bromhead and Keven O'Rourke), Journal of Economic History (July 2013).

Yellow bear paw "Currency War or International Policy Coordination?", Journal of Policy Modeling, May/June 2013.

Yellow bear paw "The Bretton Woods System," in Randall Parker and Robert Whaples eds, Routledge Handbook of Major Events in Economic History (Routledge 2013).

Yellow bear paw "The Architecture and Governance of Financial Supervision: Sources and Implications" (with Nergiz Dincer), International Finance (2013).

Yellow bear paw "Macroeconomic and Financial Policies Before and After the Crisis," in Maurice Obstfeld, Dongchul Cho and Andrew Mason (eds), Global Economic Crisis: Impacts, Transmission and Recovery, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar (2012).

Yellow bear paw "Financial Crises and the Multilateral Response: What the Historical Record Shows?" (with Bergljot Markbu and Ashoka Mody), Journal of International Economics (2012).

Yellow bear paw "How Reliable are De Facto Exchange Rate Regime Classifications?" (with Raul Razo-Garcia), International Journal of Finance and Economics (2012).

Yellow bear paw "Implications of the Euro Crisis for International Monetary Reform," Journal of Policy Modeling (2012).

Yellow bear paw "How the Subprime Crisis Went Global: Evidence from Bank Credit Default Spreads" (with Ashoka Mody and Luio Sarno, Journal of International Money and Finance (2012).

Yellow bear paw "Rebalancing Global Growth" (with Hiro Ito and Menzie Chinn), in Otaviano Canuto and Dani Leipziger (eds), Ascent After Decline: Regrowing Global Economies After the Great Recession, World Bank (2012).

Yellow bear paw "The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Rise of the Dollar as an International Currency, 1914-1939" Open Economies Review (2012).

Yellow bear paw "European Monetary Integration with Benefit of Hindsight," Journal of Common Market Studies (2012).

Yellow bear paw "Government, Business and Finance in Korean Industrial Development." International Economic Journal (September 2012).

Yellow bear paw "Throwing Out the Baby with the Bathwater: Implications of the Euro Crisis for Asian Monetary Integration," Journal of Economic Integration (2012).

Yellow bear paw "The Two Waves of Service Sector Growth" (with Poonam Gupta), Oxford Economic Papers (2012).

Yellow bear paw "Economic History and Economic Policy," Journal of Economic History (June 2012).

Yellow bear paw "Flexing Your Muscles: Abandoning a Fixed Exchange Rate for Greater Flexibility" (with Andrew Rose), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011 (University of Chicago Press, 2012).

Yellow bear paw "International Liquidity in a Multipolar World," American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings (2012).

Yellow bear paw "Financial Crises and the Multilateral Response: What the Historical Record Shows" (with Bergjot Barbku and Ashoka Mody," Journal of International Economics (2012).

Yellow bear paw "When Did the Dollar Overtake Sterling as the Leading International Currency? Evidence from the Bond Markets," with Livia Chitu and Arnaud Mehl. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No. 1433 / May 2012.

Yellow bear paw "How Reliable are De Facto Exchange Rate Regime Classifications? " (with Raul Razo-Garcia). NBER Working Paper Working Paper No. 17318 , National Bureau of Economic Resarch, August 2011 and International Journal of Finance and Economics (2012).

Yellow bear paw "Right Wing Political Extremism in the Great Depression," with Alan de Bromhead and Kevin H. O’Rourke. A preliminary version was presented at the conference on “The Ethics of Economics,” held in honor of Avner Offer, October 5, 2011 at All Souls College, Oxford.

Yellow bear paw "Implications of the Euro's Crisis for International Monetary Reform," Prepared for the session entitled "A New International Monetary Order?" at the Allied Social Science Associated Meetings, Chicago, January 6, 2012, and forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Policy Modeling.

Yellow bear paw "How Housing Slumps End," with Agustín S. Bénétrix and Kevin H. O’Rourke. Paper prepared for the Fifty-Fourth Panel Meeting of Economic Policy supported by the National Bank of Poland, 27-28 October 2011.

Yellow bear paw "Real Exchange Rates, Trade, and Growth: Italy 1861-2011," with Virginia Di Nino and Massimo Sbracia. Paper presented at the conference “Italy and the World Economy, 1861-2011,” Rome, Banca d’Italia 12-15 October 2011.

Yellow bear paw "International Policy Coordination: The Long View." September 2011.

Yellow bear paw "Economic History and Economic Policy." Presidential address to the annual meeting of the Economic History Association, Boston, MA, September 2011.

Yellow bear paw "The External Impact of China's Exchange Rate Policy: Evidence from Firm Level Data" (with Hui Tong). IMF Working Paper WP/11/155, IMF, July 2011.

Yellow bear paw "When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China" (with Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin). NBER Working Paper 16919, NBER, March 2011.

Yellow bear paw "The Service Sector as India's Road to Economic Growth " (with Poonam Gupta). NBER Working Paper 16757, NBER, February 2011.

Yellow bear paw "The New Monetary and Financial History." In Monetary and Banking History: Essays in Honour of Forrest Capie, Geoffrey Wood, Terence Mills and Nicholas Crafts (eds.) Routledge 2011.

Yellow bear paw "Global Shifts." Prepared for the Bank of Finland’s 200th anniversary symposium, Helsinki, May 5-6, 2011.

Yellow bear paw "The Euro's Never-Ending Crisis." In Current History, March 2011.

Yellow bear paw "Macroeconomic and Financial Policies Before and After the Crisis." Prepared for the East-West Center/KDI Conference on the Global Economic Crisis, Honolulu, 19-20 August 2010.

Yellow bear paw "Imbalances in the Euro Area," November 2010.

Yellow bear paw "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons." Presented at the 50th Economic Policy Panel Meeting, held in Tilburg on October 23-24, 2009. In Economic Policy (2010).

Yellow bear paw "Exchange Rates and Global Rebalancing," with Gisela Rua. Prepared for the Brookings-ADBI workshop on Global Rebalancing, Tokyo, 3-4 March 2010. This version 12 May 2010.

Yellow bear paw "The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Rise of the Dollar as an International Currency, 1914-39," with Marc Flandreau. BIS Working Paper No. 328, 1 November 2010.

Yellow bear paw "Fetters of Gold and Paper," with Peter Temin. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2010.

Yellow bear paw "The Economic Impact of European Integration," with Andrea Boltho. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 6820. Edited version in The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe, ed. Steve Broadberry and Kevin O'Rourke (Cambridge University Press 2010).

Yellow bear paw "Crisis and Growth in the Advanced Economies: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Can Learn from the 1930s." December 2010. Revised version of a paper prepared for the World Bank-NYU conference on long-term effects of the financial crisis, 7-8 October 2010. Appears in Comparative Economic Studies (March 2011).

Yellow bear paw "27 Up: The Implications for China of Abandoning Its Dollar Peg," with Andrew Rose. 21 June 2010.

Yellow bear paw "Understanding West German economic growth in the 1950s," with Albrecht Ritschl. Cliometrica, Vol. 3, No. 3, October 2009.

Yellow bear paw "The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?" with Douglas A. Irwin. July 2009. NBER Working Paper No. 15142.

Yellow bear paw "Out of the Box Thoughts about the International Financial Architecture." 1 May 2009. IMF Working Paper No. 09/116. Also in Journal of Commerce, Economics and Policy (2010).

Yellow bear paw "Lessons of the Crisis for Emerging Markets." Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper 179, 15 December 2009. Also in International Ecnomics and Economic Policy (2010).

Yellow bear paw "The Financial Crisis and Global Policy Reforms." Prepared for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's conference on Asia and the Financial Crisis, Santa Barbara, California, 19-21 October 2009, and in Asia and the Financial Crisis (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2010).

Yellow bear paw "Central Bank Transparency: Causes, Consequences and Updates," with Nergiz Dincer. February 2009. An earlier version of this paper was presented to the conference on Money Matters: The Law, Politics and Economics of Currency, held at Tel Aviv University on 7-9 January 2009. Appears in Theoretical Inquiries in Law (2010).

Yellow bear paw "Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Development and Industry Growth: A Synthetic View," with Rachita Gullapalli and Ugo Panizza. January 2009.

Yellow bear paw "Thirteen Questions about the Subprime Crisis." Prepared for a conference of the Tobin Project, "Toward a New Theory of Financial Regulation," White Oak Conference and Residency Center, Yulee, Florida, 1-3 February 2008.

Yellow bear paw The Rise and Fall of the Dollar, or When Did the Dollar Replace Sterling as the Leading Reserve Currency? with Marc Flandreau. Prepared for the conference in honor of Peter Temin, Cambridge, 9 May 2008. A longer version was presented to the Past, Present and Policy Panel, Genoa, Italy, 28-29 March 2008.

Yellow bear paw "Plumbing for Latin American Capital Markets" with Sudarat Ananchotikul. Appears in BIS Papers No. 26, "New Financing Trends in Latin America: A Bumpy Road Towards Stability," February 2008.

Yellow bear paw Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Mobility: How Much of the Swoboda Thesis Survives? Prepared for the conference in honor of Alexander Swoboda, Geneva, May 2008.

Yellow bear paw "Europe's Coming Resurgence." A revised version appears in the Milken Review, March 2008.

Yellow bear paw "Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation," with Michael Bordo. NBER Working Paper 14532, December 2008.

Yellow bear paw "Sui Generis EMU." Presented to the European Commission's workshop "EMU@10: Achievements and Challenges," Brussels, 27 November 2007.

Yellow bear paw "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth." Background paper for the World Bank Growth Commission, presented to the Commission meeting in New York City, 9 April 2007.

Yellow bear paw "Insurance Underwriter or Financial Development Fund: What Role for Reserve Pooling in Latin America?"Open Economies Review 18:1, February 2007. Presented to a FLAR-CEPAL conference in Lima, Peru, July 16-17, 2006.

Yellow bear paw "Fostering Monetary and Exchange Rate Cooperation in East Asia." Prepared for the EAMC Forum Conference on "Monetary and Financial Cooperation in Asia," Seoul, August 2007.

Yellow bear paw "Europe’s External Monetary and Financial Relations since the Euro" (with Alan Ahearne). Revised version of a paper presented to a Bruegel Conference in October 2006 (this version January 2007).

Yellow bear paw "European Integration: What Lessons for Asia?" Prepared for the Asian Development Bank project on Asian Regionalism, and presented to the project workshop in Bangkok, July 2007.

Yellow bear paw "Central Bank Transparency: Where, Why and with What Effects?" with Nergiz Dincer. NBER Working Paper No. 13003, March 2007.

Yellow bear paw "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries" (with Yeongseop Rhee and Hui Tong). Review of World Economics 143:2, pp. 201-226, April 2007. An earlier draft of this paper was presented at the KIEP/Claremont conference on East Asian regionalism, Seoul, 26-27 August 2004.

Yellow bear paw "The Bush Legacy for America's International Economic Policy" (with Douglas Irwin). Prepared for the Conference on the Legacy of the Bush Years for the Next Adminstration, Miller Center for the Study of the Presidency, University of Virginia. This version August 2007.

Yellow bear paw "The Breakup of the Euro Area." For presentation to the NBER Summer Institute preconference for the project on the euro, 12 July 2007.

Yellow bear paw "A Blueprint for IMF Reform: More Than Just a Lender." International Finance 10:2 (2007).

Yellow bear paw "The Political Economy of European Integration," prepared for The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy, edited by Donald Wittman and Barry R. Weingast (Oxford University Press 2006).

Yellow bear paw "The Future of Global Financial Markets," prepared for the Conference on the Future of Globalization at Yale University, October 2003. Appears in the conference volume edited by Ernesto Zedillo, The Future of Globalization: Explorations in Light of Recent Turbulence (Routledge 2007). This updated version is from May 2006.

Yellow bear paw "Democracy and Globalization" (with David Leblang) Prepared for the BIS annual research conference in Brunnen, Switzerland, June 2006.

Yellow bear paw "China's Exchange Rate Regime: The Long and Short of It", Revision of a paper for Columbia University's conference on Chinese money and finance held in New York on February 2-3, 2006.

Yellow bear paw "Building Bond Markets in Latin America" (with Eduardo Borensztein and Ugo Panizza). Prepared for an IADB network on the growth of corporate bond markets in Latin America. Posted August 2006

Yellow bear paw "Bond Markets as Conduits for Capital Flows: How Does Asia Compare?" (with Pipat Luengnaruemitchai), NBER Working Paper No. 12408, August 2006.

Yellow bear paw "Sudden Stops and IMF Programs" (with Poonam Gupta and Ashoka Mody). An earlier version of this paper was presented to the Interamerican Seminar on Macroeconomics in Rio, 1-3 December 2005. This version is from 5 May 2006.

Yellow bear paw "Sterling's Past, Dollar's Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition," text of the Tawney Lecture, delivered to the Economic History Society, Leicester, 10 April 2005.

Yellow bear paw "Is China's FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?" (with Hui Tong), NBER Working Paper No. 11335, May 2005.

Yellow bear paw "Is a Change in the Renminbi Exchange Rate in China's Interest?" In Asian Economic Papers 4:1 (2006). An earlier version was presented to the Asian Economic Panel, 12-13 April 2004. This version is March 2005.

Yellow bear paw "Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods," in The Future of the International Monetary System edited by Marc Uzan (Edward Elgar 2005).

Yellow bear paw "Managing Capital Inflows: Eastern Europe in an Asian Mirror" (with Omar Choudry), prepared for the Turkish Central Bank/Center for European Integration Studies conference on Macroeconomic Policies for EU Accession, Ankara, 6-7 May 2005.

Yellow bear paw "Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economies" (with Ricardo Hausmann), editors' introduction to Other People's Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economies (University of Chicago Press 2005).

Yellow bear paw "Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?" (with Muge Adalet) prepared for the NBER Conference on G7 Current Account Imbalances, Newport, Rhode Island, June 1-2, 2005.

Yellow bear paw "Can a Rapidly-Growing Export-Oriented Economy Smoothly Exit an Exchange Rate Peg? Lessons for China from Japan's High-Growth Era" (with Mariko Hatase), NBER working paper 11625, September 2005.

Yellow bear paw "Do Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs?" (with Ashoka Mody), The Economic Journal, 114:495, April 2004.

Yellow bear paw "Why Doesn't Asia Have Bigger Bond Markets?" (with Pipat Luengnaruemitchai), for presentation to the Korea University/BIS Conference on Asian Bond Market Research, Seoul, 21-23 March 2004. Revised version appears as NBER Working Paper No. 10576, June 2004; as HKIMR Working Paper No. 24/2004; and as BIS Paper No. 30, part 7, November 2006.

Yellow bear paw "Managing the World Economy in the 1990s," prepared for the Duke University/University of North Carolina Conference on the Economic History of the 1990s, 26-27 March 2004.

Yellow bear paw "The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets" (with Kenneth Kletzer and Ashoka Mody), revision of a paper presented to an IMF/Bank of Spain conference, Madrid, June 2004.

Yellow bear paw "The Great Depression as a Credit Boom Gone Wrong" (with Kris Mitchener), prepared for the BIS's Conference on Credit Booms. Revised version appears in Research in Economic History, Vol.22, pp. 183-237 (2004).

Yellow bear paw "Financial Instability," prepared for the Copenhagen Consensus project, May 2004, and in Bjorn Lomborg (ed.), Global Crises, Global Solutions (Cambridge University Press 2004).

Yellow bear paw "Why Has There Been Less Financial Integration in Asia than in Europe?" (with Yung Chul Park), presented to a conference on finacial market development in Asia, held in Honolulu, Hawaii, February 2003.

Yellow bear paw "Stock Market Volatility and Monetary Policy: What the Historical Record Shows" (with Hui Tong), prepared for the Annual Research Conference of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney, August 2003.

Yellow bear paw "Restructuring Sovereign Debt," an edited version appears in the Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 17(4), pages 75-98 (2003).

Yellow bear paw "The Pain of Original Sin" (with Ricardo Hausmann and Ugo Panizza), August 2003. Revision of paper presented to a conference at the Inter-American Development Bank (November 2002). This version appears in Barry Eichengreen and Ricardo Hausmann (eds.), Other People's Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economics (University of Chicago Press, 2004).

Yellow bear paw "Original Sin: The Road to Redemption" (with Ricardo Hausmann), August 2003. Revision of a paper presented to a conference at the Inter-American Development Bank (November 2002). Longer version appears as "The Pain of Original Sin"(with Ricardo Hausmann and Ugo Panizza),in Barry Eichengreen and Ricardo Hausmann (eds.), Other People's Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economics (University of Chicago Press, 2004).

Yellow bear paw "The Mystery of Original Sin" (with Ricardo Hausmann and Ugo Panizza), August 2003. Revision of a paper presented to a conference at the Inter-American Development Bank, November 2002. This version appears in Barry Eichengreen and Ricardo Hausmann (eds.), Other People's Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economics (University of Chicago Press, 2004)

Yellow bear paw "Is Aggregation a Problem for Sovereign Debt Restructuring?" (with Ashok Mody), presented at the ASSA meetings, Washington, DC, 4 March 2003. A revised version appears in American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings (2003).

Yellow bear paw "Crisis Resolution: Next Steps" (with Kenneth Keltzer and Ashoka Mody). IMF Working Paper WP/03/196, 2003. A revised version appears in Brookings Trade Forum 2003 (Brookings Press 2003).

Yellow bear paw "Capital Account Liberalization and Growth: Was Mr. Mahathir Right?" (with David Leblang), a revised version appears in The International Journal of Finance and Economics (2003).

Yellow bear paw "What to Do with the Chiang Mai Initiative," prepared for the Asian Economic Panel Meeting in Tokyo, May 2002. Click for figures. A revised version appears in Asian Economic Papers (2003).

Yellow bear paw "Still Fettered After All These Years," 2002. Originally prepared as revised version that appeared in Canadian Journal of Economics.

Yellow bear paw "Predicting and Preventing Financial Crises: Where Do We Stand? What Have We Learned?" prepared for the Kiel Week annual conference, Kiel, Germany, 24 - 25 June 2002. Click for figures. Revised version appears in Horst Siebert (ed.), Global Governance: An Architecture for the World Economy (2003).

Yellow bear paw "Hedge Fund Leverage Before and After the Crisis" (with Bokyeong Park). A revised version appears in The Journal of Economic Integration (2002).

Yellow bear paw "Capital Account Liberalization: What Do the Cross-Country Studies Tell Us?" preliminary version, April 2001. A revised version appears in The World Bank Economic Review, March 2002.

Yellow bear paw "The British Economy Between the Wars", prepared for the third edition of The Economic History of Britain (Roderick Floud and Paul Johnson, eds), 2002.

Yellow bear paw "When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More Than it Hurts?" (with Carlos Arteta and Charles Wyplosz), March 2000. Prepared for the conference celebrating Assaf Razin's 60th birthday, held at Tel Aviv University, 25 - 26 March 2001. Updated July 2001. Revised version appears in Elhanan Helpman and Efraim Sadka (eds.), Economic Policy in the International Economy (Cambridge University Press, 2003).

Yellow bear paw "Monetary and Financial Reform in Two Eras of Globalization (and In Between)" (with Harold James), May 2001. Prepared for the NBER Conference on Globalization and History, Santa Barbara, 4 - 6 May 2001. Revised September 2001. A revised version appears in Globalization in Historical Perspective, Michael Bordo, Alan Taylor, and Jeffrey Williamson (eds.), (University of Chicago Press, 2005).

Yellow bear paw "Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe?" (with Michael Bordo, Daniela Klingebiel and Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria), January 2001. Click for figures 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11. A revised version appears in Economic Policy April 2001.

Yellow bear paw "Innovation and Integration: Europe's Economy Since 1945." A revised version appears in Europe since 1945 (The Short Oxford History of Europe), edited by Mary Fulbrook (Oxford University Press 2001).

Yellow bear paw "International Financial Crises: Is the Problem Growing?" August 2001. A revised version appears in Jahrbuch fur Wirtschaftsgeschichte (2002).

Yellow bear paw "Hanging Together? On Monetary and Financial Cooperation in Asia", October 2001. Prepared for the World Bank project on Rethinking the Asian Miracle. An earlier version was presented to a meeting co-hosted by the World Bank and the Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, 2-3 October 2001. A revision appears in Shahid Yusuf et al., Global Change and East Asian Policy Initiatives (Oxford 2003).

Yellow bear paw "EMU and Enlargement" (with Fabio Ghironi), prepared for a conference on Economic and Monetary Union organized by DG EcFin of the European Commission, Brussels, 21 - 22 March 2001. Revised version appears in Marco Buti and Adre Sapir (eds), EMU and Economic Policy in Europe (Edward Elgar, 2003).

Yellow bear paw "Does It Pay to Defend Against a Speculative Attack?" (with Andrew Rose), April 2001. A revised version appears in Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, edited by Michael Dooley and Jeffrey Frankel.

Yellow bear paw "Counterfactual Histories of the Great Depression" (with Peter Temin), October 2001. A revised and edited version of this paper appears in Theo Balderston (ed.), The World Economy and National Economies in the Interwar Years.

Yellow bear paw "Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization?" (with Michael Bordo), November 2001. Prepared for a conference in honor of Charles Goodhart at the Bank of England, 15 - 16 November 2001. A revised version appears in a festschrfit volume edited by Paul Mizen, Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets (Edward Elgar 2004).

Yellow bear paw "Between Meltdown and Moral Hazard: The International Monetary and Financial Policies of the Clinton Administration" (with Brad DeLong), July 2001. Prepared for the conference on the Economic Policies of the Clinton Administration, Kennedy School of Government, 26-29 June 2001. A revised version apprears in a book by the same name, edited by Jeffrey Frankel and Peter Orzag.

Yellow bear paw "The Political Economy of European Monetary Unification: An Analytical Introduction" (with Jeffry Frieden), February 2000. Preliminary version of editors' introduction to the second edition of Barry Eichengreen and Jeffry Frieden, The Political Economy of European Monetary Unification, Second Edition (Westview Press, 2000).

Yellow bear paw "The EMS Crisis in Retrospect," preliminary version, November 2000. Prepared for the conference celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Banco de Mexico, Mexico City, 14 - 15 November 2000. A revised version appears in a volume edited by Guillermo Ortiz and Alejandro Werner, Stabilization and Monetary Policy: The International Experience.

Yellow bear paw "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves: Retrospect and Prospect," preliminary version, January 2000. Click for figures. Prepared for the UNU/WIDER Conference on the Future of the International Monetary and Financial System, Helsinki, 11 - 12 November 1999. A revised version appears in a volume edited by Charles Wyplosz, The Impact of EMU on Europe and the Developing Countries (Oxford University Press 2001).

Yellow bear paw "The Bail-In Problem: Systematic Goals, Ad Hoc Means," May 2000. A revised version was published in Economic Systems, 2001.

Yellow bear paw "Institutions and Economic Growth in Postwar Europe: Evidence and Conjectures" (with Pablo Vazquez), September 1999. A revised version was published in Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth , edited by Bart van Ark (Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000).

Yellow bear paw "Policy Making in an Integrated World: From Surveillance to...?" preliminary version, 1999. Prepared for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's Conference on Policy Making in an Interdependent World, Cape Cod, 7 - 9 June 1999. A revised version appears in Jane Little and Giovanni Olivei (eds.), Rethinking the International Monetary System (1999)and in Andrew Hughes Hallet, et al. (eds.), Challenges for Economic Policy Coordination within European Monetary Union (2001).

Yellow bear paw "The Keynesian Revolution and the Nominal Revolution: Was There a Paradigm Shift in Economic Policy in the 1930s?", March 1999. A revised version appears in Valerio Castronovo (ed.), Storia dell-economia mondiale (A History of the World Economy), Volume 4: Between Expansion and Recession (1850-1930) (2000).

Yellow bear paw "Is Globalization Today Really Different than Globalization a Hundred Years Ago?" (with Michael Bordo and Douglas Irwin), preliminary version, 1999. Prepared for the Brookings Trade Policy Forum on Governing in a Global Economy, Washington, DC, 15 - 16 April 1999. Revised version published in Brookings Trade Policy Forum, 1999.

Yellow bear paw "Is Greater Private-Sector Burden Sharing Impossible?" preliminary version, 1999. Prepared for the IMF conference on Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary and Financial System. Revised version published in Peter Kenen and Alexander Swoboda (eds.), Reforming the International Monetary and Financial System (2000).

Yellow bear paw "Is Our Current International Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone?" (with Michael Bordo), preliminary version, 1999. Click for figures. Prepared for the Reserve Bank of Australia Conference on Private Capital Flows, Sydney, 9 - 10 August 1999. A revised version was published in David Gruen and Luke Gower (eds.), Capital Flows and the International Financial System (1999).

Yellow bear paw "Institutions and Economic Performance: Evidence from the Labor Market" (with Torben Iversen), November 1999. A revised version was published in a special issue of The Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Winter 1999, on the economics of the 20th century.

Yellow bear paw "Hedge Funds in the New International Financial Architecture," preliminary version, 1999. Prepared for the Institute for Developing Economies Project on Reform of the International Financial Architecture, and presented at a symposium in Tokyo, 22 - 23 March 1999. A revised version was published in International Finance (2000).

Yellow bear paw "From Benign Neglect to Malignant Preoccupation: U.S. Balance-of-Payments Policy in the 1960s," preliminary version, November 1999. Prepared for the Brookings Conference on the U.S. Economy in the 1960s, November 1999. Published in a conference volume edited by George Perry and James Tobin, Economic Events Ideas and Policies: The 1960s and After (Brookings Institution Press 2000).

Yellow bear paw "The Empirics of Currency and Banking Crises" (with Andrew Rose), in NBER Reporter, 1999. Revised version published in Wirtschaftspolitisches Blatter (Austrian Economic Papers), 2000.

Yellow bear paw "What Explains the Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?" (with Ashoka Mody), preliminary draft, February 1998. Revised version appears in Sebastian Edwards (ed.), The Economics of International Capital Flows (University of Chicago Press, 2000).

Yellow bear paw "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," (with Andrew K. Rose). NBER Working Paper No. 6370, January 1998. A revised version is published in Guillermo Calvo, Rudiger Dornbusch and Maurice Obstfeld (eds), Trade, Capital Mobility, and Growth: Essays in Honor of Robert Mundell (2000).

Yellow bear paw "The Rise and Fall of a Barbarous Relic: The Role of Gold in the International Monetary System" (with Michael Bordo), preliminary draft, January 1998. Click for figures 1-5, tables 1-8; appendices 1, 2 and 3; and appendix figures. Revised version appears in Guillermo Calvo, Rudiger Dornbusch and Maurice Obstfeld (eds.), Money, Capital Mobility, and Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert Mundell (2000).

Yellow bear paw "Lending Booms, Reserves and the Sustainability of Short-Term Debt: Inferences from the Pricing of Syndicated Bank Loans" (with Ashoka Mody), 1998. Prepared for the Interamerican Seminar on Macroeconomics, Rio de Janeiro, 3 - 5 December 1998. A revised version appears in the Journal of Development Economics (2000).

Yellow bear paw "The International Monetary Fund in the Wake of the Asian Crisis," preliminary version of a paper presented to the Monash University/Australian National University Conference on the Asian Crisis, Melbourne, 17 - 18 December 1998. Revised version appears in The Asian Financial System and the Architecture of Global Finance edited by Greg Noble and John Ravenhill (Oxford University Press 2000).

Yellow bear paw "Interest Rates in the North and Capital Flows to the South: Is There a Missing Link?" (with Ashoka Mody), preliminary draft, June 1998. A revised version appears in International Finance 1, October 1998.

Yellow bear paw "International Economic Policy in the Wake of the Asian Crisis," preliminary draft, August 1998. Revised version appears in Restructuring the Korean Financial Market in a Global Economy edited by Lee-Jay Cho, Yoonhyung Kim, and Inseok Shin (Korean Development Institution 2002).

Yellow bear paw "Exchange Rate Stability and Financial Stability," preliminary draft, June 1998. Revised version appears in Open Economies Review, Supplement, 1998.

Yellow bear paw "Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas" (with Tamim Bayoumi), preliminary draft. Click for figure 1 and tables 1-3. Revised version published in Journal of International Economics, 1998.

Yellow bear paw "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?" prepared for the IPEA conference ALCA and MERCOSUL: The Brazilian Economy and the Processes of Subregional and Hemispheric Integration, Brazilia, 5 - 6 October 1998. Click for figures 1, 2, 3, 4, A.1 and A.2; and tables 1, 2, 3, A.1, A.2 and A.3.

Yellow bear paw "Currency Crises and Unemployment: Sterling in 1931" (with Olivier Jeanne), preliminary draft, 1998. Revised version appears in Paul Krugman (ed.), Currency Crises (University of Chicago Press 2000).

Yellow bear paw "The Stability Pact: More Than a Minor Nuisance?" (with Charles Wyplosz), preliminary draft, October 1997. Revised version published in Economic Policy 26, Spring 1998. Also appears in David Begg, Juergen von Hagen, Charles Wyplosz and Klaus Zimmermann (eds), EMU: Propsects and Challenges for the Euro (1998).

Yellow bear paw "Managing Financial Crises in Emerging Markets" (with Richard Portes), preliminary draft, August 1997. Revised version published in Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Managing Financial Instability (1998).

Yellow bear paw "The Gold Standard and the Great Depression" (with Peter Temin), NBER Working Paper No. 6060, 1997. Revised version published in Contemporary European History, July 2000.

Yellow bear paw "European Monetary Unification: A Tour d'Horizon," preliminary draft, December 1997. Revised version published in Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Autumn 1998.

Yellow bear paw "The Euro as a Reserve Currency," preliminary draft, November 1997. Click for figures 1-4 and tables 1-5. Revised version appears in The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, December 1998.

Yellow bear paw "Economics and Culture in the Writing of Financial History," preliminary draft, May 1997. Revised version appears in Gerald Feldman, Philip Cottrell and Jaime Reis (eds), Finance and the Making of Modern Capitalism.

Yellow bear paw "Dental Hygiene and Nuclear War: How International Relations Look from Economics," preliminary draft, December 1997. Revised version appears in International Organization, Autumn 1997 and in Peter Katzenstein, Robert Keohane, and Stephen Krasner (eds), Exploration and Contestation in the Study of World Policies, 1999. EP Conference on Recovery from the Asian Crisis, Seoul, 18 - 19 May 2001.

Yellow bear paw "The Baring Crisis in a Mexican Mirror," preliminary draft, February 1997. Click for figures 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9. Revised version appears in International Political Science Review 20, August 1999.

Yellow bear paw "Unemployment and the Structure of Labor Markets: The Long View." A revised version appears in Herbert Giersch (ed.), Unemployment: A Problem in Europe (1996).

Yellow bear paw "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows" (with Douglas Irwin), preliminary draft, May 1996. Revised version published in Jeffrey Frankel (ed.), The Regionalization of the World Economy (University of Chicago Press, 1998).

Yellow bear paw "Saving Europe's Automatic Stabilizers," CIDER WP #C96-082, November 1996. Revised version published in National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Review, December 1996. Also appears in Mark Baimbridge, Brian Burkitt, and Philip Whyman (eds.), The Impact of the Euro: Debating Britain's Future.

Yellow bear paw "On the Links Between Monetary and Political Integration," CIDER WP #C96-077, December 1996. A revised version was published in the Swiss Political Science Review, Spring 1997.

Yellow bear paw "Is Asia an Optimum Currency Area? Can It Become One? Regional, Global and Historical Perspectives on Asian Monetary Relations" (with Tamim Bayoumi), CIDER WP C96-081, December 1996. Revised version published in Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Asian Countries (Routledge Studies in the Growth Economies of Asia, 13) edited by Stefan Collignon, Jean Pisani-Ferry, and Yung Chul Park (Routledge 1999).

Yellow bear paw "Hegemonic Stability Theory and Economic Analysis: Reflections on Financial Instability and the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort", CIDER WP C96-080, October 1996. A revised version was published in the Mershon International Studies Review (1998).

Yellow bear paw "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency Area Index for European Countries" (with Tamim Bayoumi), CIDER WP C96-078, August 1996. Revised version appeared in European Economic Review and republished in Paul de Grauwe (ed.), The Politial Economy of Monetary Union.

Yellow bear paw "European Monetary Unification and International Monetary Cooperation" (with Fabio Ghironi), preliminary draft, December 1996. Revised version published in Politique Etrangere, 1997 (in French). Expanded version in Barry Eichengreen (ed.), Transatlantic Economic Relations in the Post-Cold War Era, Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1998.

Yellow bear paw "EMU: An Outsider's Perspective," CIDER WP C96-079, October 1996. A revised verion appears in The Irish Banking Review, 1997.

Yellow bear paw "Contagious Currency Crises" (with Andy Rose and Charles Wyplosz), NBER WP 5681; CEPR DP 1453, July 1996. Revised March 1997. Part of this paper was published in the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 98, 1996.

Yellow bear paw "Contending with Capital Flows: What is Different About the 1990s?" (with Albert Fishlow), Occasional Paper, Council on Foreign Relations, 1996. Click for figures 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9; and tables 1 and 2. Revised and expanded version published in Miles Kahler (ed.), Capital Flows and Financial Crises, Cornell University Press, 1998.

Yellow bear paw "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the EU and EFTA" (with Tamim Bayoumi), preliminary draft, December 1995. Revised version published in Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger (eds.), Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements (University of Chicago Press, 1998).

Yellow bear paw "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance" (with Charles Wyplosz and J. Tobin), preliminary draft, May 1994. Revised version published in Economic Journal 105, January 1995.

Yellow bear paw "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System" (with Andy Rose and Charles Wyplosz), preliminary draft, October 1994. Revised version published in Matthew Canzoneri, Wilfred Ethier and Vittorio Grilli (eds.), The New Trans-Atlantic Economy (Cambridge University Press, 1996). Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 4898 and CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1060.

Yellow bear paw "Financing Infrastructure in Developing Countries: Lessons from the Railway Age", Economics Department WP 94-230, October 1994. A revised version was published in Ashoka Mody (ed.), Infrastructure Delivery: Private Initiative and the Public Good, 1996.

Yellow bear paw "Debt Deflation and Financial Instability: Two Historical Perspectives" (with Richard Grossman), preliminary draft, June 1994. Click for figures 1-6 and 7-11; and tables 1-4. Revised version published in Forrest Capie and Geoffrey Wood (eds.), Asset Prices and the Real Economy (Palgrave Macmillan 1997).

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