George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science
"IMF Reform: The Unfinished Agenda" with José De Gregorio, Takatoshi Ito, and Charles Wyplosz (September 2018)
"Are Trump's Tariffs Fit for Purpose?" Capitalism and Society (2018).
"The Future of Globalization," International Finance - a Journal of the China Finance Society (2018).
"Ten Years After the Global Financial Crisis: Risks to Financial Stability," Northeast Asia Forum (2018).
"The Euro after Meseberg," Review of World Economics (2018).
"IMF Reform: The Unfinished Agenda" with José De Gregorio, Takatoshi Ito, and Charles Wyplosz (September 2018).
“Is it the End of the Global Trading Order, or Just a Recasting?” Global Asia (June 2018).
“Asia after the Liberal Order,” Global Asia (June 2018).
“Is All This EU-Enthusiasm Justified?” Intereconomics (January 2018).
“The Euro Malaise: From Remission to Cure,” Milken Review (2018).
“The Euro’s Narrow Path,” Politica Exterior (December 2017).
“The Open Economy Trilemma in the Long Run,” Korean Economic Review (winter 2018).
“Letter from America,” Intereconomics (Winter 2018).
“The Global Productivity Slump: Common and Country Specific Factors,” Asian Economic Papers (Fall 2017).
“The Euro’s Narrow Path,”Politica Exterior (2017).
“A Two Handed Approach to Secular Stagnation: Some Thoughts Based on 1930s Experience,” Journal of Policy Modeling (2017).
“After the Crisis: A New Model of Growth,” Annuario Internacional CIDOB (2017).
“Solving Europe’s Fiscal Conundrum” (with Charles Wyplosz), in Agnes Benasy-Coure and Francesco Giavazzi (eds), Fixing the Eurozone and Beyond (Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2017).
“Renminbi Internationalization: The Pause that Refreshes,” China’s World (May 2017).
“Prepare for a Crisis,” in Howard Witt (ed.), First Year 2017: Where the Next Presidency Begins, Volume 10, The Uncertain Future of Globalization (Miller Center at the University of Virginia, 2017).
“Capital Flows: What Do We Know?” Commencement Day Lecture Publication (India Export-Import Bank, 2017).
“Remarks on the Occasion of the Austrian National Banks’s 200th Anniversary,” in Oestereichissche Nationalbank, Central Banking in Times of Change (Austrian National Bank 2017).
“Financial History in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis,” in David Chambers and Elroy Dimson (eds), Financial Market History (CFA Institute 2017).
“International Policy Coordination and Emerging Market Economies,” in Chetan Ghate and Kenneth Kletzer ed. Monetary Policy in India (Springer 2017).
“The Populist Turn in American Politics,” Current History (January 2017).
"International Monetary Order,” in Vitor Constancio and Philipp Hartmann (eds), The Future of the International Monetary and Financial Architecture (European Central Bank, 2016).
“Spinning Beyond Brexit: Will Globalization Go into Reverse?” Prospect (November 2016).
“Coping with Global Volatility,” International Economic Journal (2016).
“The Dollar and the International Dimension of Monetary Policy,” Revista d Economía (2016).
“Rethinking Capital Controls,” Milken Review (Summer 2016).
“Central Banking in the 21st Century,” in Normalizacion de la politica monetaria global y America Latina, Cartagena: FLAR (2016).
"The Mother of All Sudden Stops: Capital Flows and Reversals in Europe, 1919-32," Economic History Review, May 2016.
"Doctrinal Determinants, Domestic and International, of Federal Reserve Policy 1913-1934," in Michael Bordo and Mark Wynne (eds), The Federal Reserve's Role in the Global Economy: A Historical Perspective,Cambridge University Press, April 2016.
"Before the Plaza: The Exchange Rate Stabilization Attempts of 1925, 1931, 1936 and 1971," in Fred Bergsten and Russell Green (eds) International Monetary Cooperation: Lessons from the Laza Accord After Thirty Years, April 2016.
"The Euro's Twin Challenges Experience and Lessons" (with Bergljot Barkbu and Ashoka Mody), in James Caporaso and Martin Rhodes (eds), The Political and Economic Dynamics of the Eurozone Crisis (Oxford April 2016).
"Global Economic and Political Risks", Economic Policy Journal (in Russian), March 2016.
"The European Central Bank: From Problem to Solution",in Open Mind, BBVA Group The Search for Europe: Contrasting Approaches, 2016.
"Minimal Conditions for the Survival of the Euro" (with Charles Wyplosz), Intereconomics - Review of European Economic Policy. (January 2016)
"Wall of Worries: Reflections on the Secular Stagnation Debate", Bank of Japan, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Discussion Paper No. 2015-E-5, 2015.
"The IMF's Unmet Challenges"(with Ngaire Woods), Journal of Economic Perspectives 30(1). (Winter 2015)
"China's Money Goes Global", Milken Institute Review, Fourth Quarter 2015.
"Deja Vu All Over Again", The Political Economist, Fall 2015.
"China's Challenge: How to Strengthen the Financial System", Capital Ideas, August 2015.
"How the Euro Crisis Ends: Not with a Bang but With a Wimper," Journal of Policy Modeling, July 2015.
"Secular Stagnation: The Long View," American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2015.
"A Surplus of Ambition: Can Europe Rely on Large Primary Surpluses to Solve Its Debt Problem?" (with Ugo Panizza), Economic Policy, April 2015.
"The Uses and Misuses of Economic History," in Owen Humpage (ed.), Current Federal Reserve Policy Under the Lens of Economic History (Cambridge University Press, 2015).
"The Next Financial Crisis," Economia Politica (2015).
"The Eurozone Crisis: The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas Bites Back," Notenstein Academy White Paper (May 2014).
"Rethinking Central Banking" (with Eswar Prasad and Raghuram Rajan), in Deepak Mohanty (ed.), Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt and Financial Stability: The New Trilemma, Reserve Bank of India, 2014.
"Strengthening the International Financial Architecture: The Unanswered Questions," in Ali al Sakik (ed.), The Global Crisis and its Economic Implications for Dubai, London: Palgrave, 2013.
"The Crisis of European Capitalism," Current History (November 2013).
"Shinzo Abe's Excellent Adventure," Milken Review (Autumn 2013).
"Number One Country, Number One Currency?," The World Economy (April 2013).
"Currency Wars: Perception and Reality," DWS Institute White Paper, (Frankfurt: Deutsche Bank, May 2013).
"Lessons of the Europe Crisis for Monetary Integration and Cooperation in Latin America," Papers and Proceedings of the 7th Conference on Economic Studies, Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas, Bogata: FLAR (July 2013).
"When Currencies Collapse,", Foreign Affairs, January/February 2012.
"The Once and Future Dollar," American Interest (May/June 2012).
"Escaping the Middle Income Trap," in Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Achieving Maximum Long Run Growth (2012).
"Is the Age of Dollar Dominance Coming to an End?" Global Financial Institute White Paper, Frankfurt: Deutsche Bank (2012).
"Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," in Liu Shiyu (ed), Monitoring and Managing Financial Stability, International Monetary Fund and People's Bank of China, 2012.
"Asia's Role in the Post Crisis Global Economy: Closing Remarks," in Reuven Glick and Mark Spiegel (eds.), Asia's Role in the Post-Crisis Global Economy, San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012).
"Banks and Cross Border Capital Flows: Policy Challenges and Regulatory Responses" Second report of the Committee on International Monetary Policy and Reform (Funded by Sloan Foundation and published by Brookings Institution), September 2012.
"Rethinking Central Banking." A report from the Brookings Committee on International Economic Policy and Reform, September 2011.
"Public Debts: Nuts, Bolts and Worries." The 13th CEPR/ICMB Geneva Report on the World Economy, 16 September 2011.
"What Kind of Economic and Financial Leadership Does the World Expect of China? Lessons from Two Historical Episodes, " In Medium- and Long-term Development and Transformation Of the Chinese Economy, Cairncross Economic Research Foundation, 2011.
"The Euro's Never-Ending Crisis," Current History, March 2011.
"Business Cycle Behaviour in Historical Perspective: Introduction" (with Michael Artis and George Chouliarakis), The Manchester School (March 2011).
"Reforming the International Architecture, 2011 Edition." Keynote address delivered to the annual research conference of the Bank of Korea, Seoul, 26 May 2011.
"The Renminbi as an International Currency." January 2011.
"The International Financial Architecture and the Role of Regional Funds." Prepared for the fifth annual FLAR (Latin American Reserve Fund) economic studies annual conference, Cartagena, Colombia, August, 2010.
"Globalization and the Crisis." Text of presentation at the Ninth Munich Economic Summit, "The Financial Crisis: The Way Forward," 29 April 2010.
"Managing a Multiple Reserve Currency World." Prepared for the Asian Development Bank Institute/Earth Institute project on "Reform of the Global Monetary System" and in the project volume The 21st Century International Monetary System, ed. Wing Thye Woo (Asian Development Bank 2010). This version April 2010.
"Managing Openness: Lessons from the Crisis for Emerging Markets." Prepared for the World Bank Conference on Managing Openness, May 10, 2010. Appears in Managing Openness: Trade and Outward-Oriented Growth After the Crisis, Mona Haddad and Ben Shepherd, eds., World Bank Publications, 2011. This version May 2010.
"Mr. Bernanke Goes to War." The National Interest, 16 December 2010.
"The Crisis in Financial Innovation." Lecture given on receipt of the Schumpter Prize, Vienna, January 20, 2010. A revision will be published by the Austrian National Bank in its occasional paper series.
"Fortifying the Financial Architecture: Unanswered Questions." Current History, January 2010, vol. 109, issue 723, p. 17.
"The G-20 and the IMF: An Uneasy Relationship." Global Asia, September 2010.
"The Dollar Dilemma: The World's Top Currency Faces Competition." Foreign Affairs.com, September/October 2009.
"Financial Re-regulation, Yes. But..." Europe's World, Summer 2009.
"The Global Credit Crisis as History." An edited version will appear in Current History, January 2009.
"The Last Temptation of Risk," The National Interest Online, 28 April 2009.
"Viewpoint: Stress Test for the Euro," Finance and Development, IMF.org, June 2009.
"The Crisis and the Euro," April 2009. An edited version is forthcoming in a publication from the Royal Elcano Institute in Madrid.
"Should There Be a Coordinated Response to the Problem of Global Imbalances? Can There Be One?" Background paper, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, published as Working Paper 69, September 2008.
"Globalization, Financial Markets and Climate Change," Speech to the Bank Indonesia Annual Conference, Bali, 2 August 2008.
"Asia and the Decoupling Myth," with Yung Chul Park. May 2008.
"The Cautious Case for Capital Flows." Presented to Rating Agency Malaysia's conference on "Free Capital Mobility: What's in Store for Asia?" held in Singapore, 1 August 2007.
"Brazil and the Subprime Crisis." Prepared for the National Association of Financial Market Institutions (ADMIMA) and Custody and Settlement Chamber (CETIP) Second International Seminar on Fixed Income Markets, Sao Paolo, 25 October 2007.
"The Asian Crisis After Ten Years." Keynote address delivered to a Singapore National University/SCAPE conference held in Singapore, 31 July 2007.
"The Korean Economy: Higher Costs, Slower Growth, Freer Trade--and the Way Forward." Presented to the KOTRA symposium on "Korea's Foreign Investment Inducement Since the Financial Crisis," Seoul, 20 June 2007.
"The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth." Delivered to the 8th annual conference of the W. Arthur Lewis Institute for Social and Economic Studies, Port of Spain, 27 March 2007.
"The Development of Asian Bond Markets," BIS Papers No. 30, Asian Bond Markets: Issues and Prospects, November 2006.
"China's Exchange Rate Regime: The Long and Short of It." Revision of a paper for Columbia University's conference on Chinese money and finance held in New York on February 2-3, 2006. Updated July 2006.
"Debt Instruments and Policies in the New Millennium: New Markets and New Opportunities," (with Eduardo Borensztein and Ugo Panizza), Inter-American Development Bank, RES Working Paper 4456, April 2006.
"Global Imbalances: The New Economy, the Dark Matter, the Savvy Investor, and the Standard Analysis," The Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 28, Issue 6, September 2006, Pages 645-652.
"Global Imbalances: Implications for Emerging Asia," (with Yung Chul Park). Presented to the IADB Annual Meetings Seminar, Madrid, 15-16 May 2006.
"The Parallel Currency Approach to Asian Monetary Integration," Appears in American Economic Review, Vol. 96, Issue 2, May 2006.
"Europe, the Euro and the ECB: Monetary Success, Fiscal Failure." An edited version appears in The Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 27, Issue 4, June 2005, Pages 427-439.
"Capital Account Liberalization and the Fund," Prepared for the High Level Seminar on Capital Account Liberalization and the IMF, held at the Swiss Ministry of Finance and convened jointly by the Finance Ministries of Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switerland, Bern, 12 December 2005.
"Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?" 2002. Revised version in Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Policy by Rebecca Driver, Christoph Thoenissen and Peter Sinclair (eds.) Routledge, 2005.
"The Dollar and the New Bretton Woods System," text of the Henry Thornton Lecture, delivered at the Cass School of Business, 15 December 2004.
"The Dollar and the Policy Mix Redux" (with Yung Chul Park), for presentation at the Korean Development Institute, 23 March 2004. A shortened version appears in Current History, December 2004.
"Financial Development in Asia: The Way Forward," inaugural lecture delivered on behalf of the Institute of South East Asian Studies, Singapore, 14 January 2004. Published as IEAS Occasional Paper, October 2004.
"Financial Instability," written on behalf of the Copenhagen Consensus, presented in Copenhagen on 25-28 May 2004.
"Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Korea: Assessments and Policy Issues," prepared for a symposium at the Bank of Korea, 25 August 2004. Revised version appears as CEPR Discussion Paper 4676, October 2004.
"Real and Pseudo Preconditions for an Asian Monetary Union," for presentation to the Asian Development Bank High-Level Conference on Asia's Economic Cooperation and Integration, Manila, 1-2 July, 2004. Revised version appears in Asian Economic Cooperation and Integration: Progress, Prospects, and Challenges, Asian Development Bank, 2005.
"Strengthening the International Financial Architecture: 2004," plenary address to 3rd Annual PECC Finance Conference, Sheraton Santiago Hotel and Conference Center, Santiago, Chile, 21 June 2004.
"The Unintended Consequences of the Asian Bond Fund," lecture at the Institute of East Asian Studies, Singapore, January 2004.
"Sustainable Regimes of Capital Movements in Accession Countries" (with David Begg, László Halpern, Jürgen von Hagen, and Charles Wyplosz), revised version published as CEPR Policy Paper 10, March 2003.
"The Consequences of Saying No: An Independent Report into the Economic Consequences of the UK Saying No to the Euro" (with David Begg, Olivier Blanchard, Diane Coyle, Jeffrey Frankel, Francesco Giavazzi, Richard Portes, Paul Seabright, Anthony Venables, L Alan Winters and Charles Wyplosz), a report for Britain in Europe, 2003.
"Institutions for Fiscal Stability," paper prepared for the Munich Economic Summit, 2-3 May 2003. Revised version in CES-Ifo Economic Studies (2004).
"Crisis Resolution: Why We Need a Krueger-Like Process to Obtain a Taylor-Like Result," April 2002. Prepared for the Institute for International Economics Conference on Sovereign Debt Workouts: Hopes and Hazards. These remarks draw on my book, Financial Crises and What to Do About Them, Oxford University Press.
"Lessons of the Euro for the Rest of the World," delivered under the auspices of the Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation, Vienna, 4 December 2002.
"What Macroeconomic Measures are Needed for Free Trade to Flourish in the Western Hemisphere?" prepared for the Organization of American States/NetAmericas Research Network on Trade in the Americas Conference on "Integrating the Americas," Washington, DC, 21 - 22 November 2002. Revised version published in Latin American Politics and Society (2004).
"Crisis Prevention and Management: Any New Lessons from Argentina and Turkey?" October 2001. Background paper written for the World Bank's Global Development Finance 2002.
"Managing Financial Crises," November 2001. Lecture delivered on the occasion of the award of the Felix Neubergh Prize, Goteborg University, 13 November 2001. A revised version appears in pamphlet form by the Felix Neubergh Foundation.
"Solving the Currency Conundrum," preliminary version, March 2001. Prepared for the Council on Foreign Relations Study Group on Economic and Financial Development. A revised version appears in Economic Notes, 2001.
"Strengthening the International Financial Architecture: Open Issues, Asian Concerns," prepared for the IMF/KIEP Conference on the Korean Crisis and Recovery, Seoul, 18 - 19 May 2001. Revised version published in Korean Crisis and Recovery, David T. Coe and Kim Se-Jik (eds.), 2002. Seoul: International Monetary Fund and Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
"What Problems Can Dollarization Solve?" prepared for an ASSA panel on dollarization chaired by Dominick Salvatore, January 2001. A revised version appears in The Journal of Policy Modeling, 2001.
"The Euro One Year On," preliminary version, February 2000. A revised version appears in The Journal of Policy Modeling, 2000.
"Will EMU Work?" preliminary draft. A revised version appears (in Norwegian) in Arne Jon Isachsen and Ole Bjorn Roste (eds.), Euroen og den norske kronens skjebne, 2000.
"Capital Controls: Capital Idea or Capital Folly?" November 1998. Revised version appears in Milken Review, 1999.
"Strengthening the Common Financial House," remarks delivered at the World Bank/Japanese Ministry of Finance Conference on Global Finance and Development, 2 March 1999.
"Strengthening the International Financial Architecture: Where Do We Stand?" preliminary version, October 1999. Prepared for the East-West Center Workshop on International Monetary and Financial Reform, Honolulu, 1 - 2 October 1999. A revised version appears in ASEAN Economic Review, 2000.
"Taming Capital Flows," preliminary version, September 1999. A revised version appears in a special issue of World Development, June 2000, edited by Irma Adelman.
"EMU: The Road Ahead," preliminary draft. A revised version appears in NIRA Review, Spring 1998, National Institute for Research Advancement, Tokyo. Revised and updated version in Harmen Lehment (ed.), Challenges for Highly Developed Countries in the Global Economy, 1998, Kiel Institute of World Economics.
"The Only Game in Town," preliminary draft. A revised version appears in The World Today, November 1998.
"Will the Asian Phoenix Rise Again?" preliminary draft October 1998. A revised version appears in Global Emerging Markets, London: Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, November 1998. Also appears in Financial Times Currency Forecaster, December 1998.
"International Monetary Arrangements: Is There a Monetary Union in Asia's Future?" preliminary draft. A revised version appears in Brookings Review, March/April 1997.
"Europe's Role in International Financial Markets After EMU," preliminary draft. A revised version appears in Borsen-Zeitung, 28 October 1997. (The web version here of this paper is in English; published version is in German.)
"The Tyranny of the Financial Markets," Current History, November 1997.