Professor Ronald Lee is the director of the Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging at UC Berkeley and is a faculty member of both the Economic and Demography departments. He has published numerous books and articles and served on many panels and committees. Because Professor Lee has conducted research in many areas, from demographic forecasting to economic and fiscal demography to population aging and development, I will discuss his approach to one specific area of his research in order to provide a concrete example as to how he formulates questions for research.

 Professor Lee has conducted research on intergenerational transfers, life cycle savings, demographic transition, etc. One particular question he has addressed is the fiscal impacts of immigration. He looked at the net fiscal present value of an immigrant and analyzed the average amount of taxes that immigrants pay and the amount of benefits they receive. He also looked at the difference in fiscal impact between different immigrant generations. He first became involved in the subject matter when he was asked to answer questions about the impact of immigration by Congress for policy purposes. Thus, he did not choose the research topic himself.

During this research, he had to make population projections, and through that, he noticed interesting population aging trends and developed more research questions on population aging from what he observed. Hence, some of his research questions are actually spin-offs from previous work.

Other times, Professor Lee discovers new research questions from what he reads. He reads other economists’ publications critically and analyzes ways their arguments/theories work and ways they do not. When he comes across invalid arguments, he searches for ways to approach and solve the problem. The questions Professor Lee has asked during his research on immigration, population, demographic development, etc. are important because they have significant policy implications. They allow policy makers to make sound decisions on what kind of policies to implement. There have been a lot of policy issues and debates surrounding immigration and the effect of population aging on society and Social Security, and Professor Lee’s research has given answers to some of these concerns.

A variety of data are used in Professor Lee’s research, both international and domestic. Most of these data are prepared by government agencies from the surveys they conduct. They can come from the census, current population surveys, IPUMS, PUMS, and other micro-level surveys. These data can be found on their respective websites and also in printed form. Most of the recent surveys can be found online, while the older ones can be found at the library.
 

     Professor Ronald Lee has been a professor of Demography and Economics at the University of California, Berkeley since 1979.  He is also the Director for the Center for the Demography and Economics of Aging, and has held a series of other professional positions.  A list of awards and honors he has received, along with other achievements and past works can be found on the Demography website.

    According to Professor Lee, there is not one systematic method he uses in generating and answering questions in his research.  He provided me with one example of the development of one of his recent papers that was of particular interest to me, “Intergenerational Transfers and the Economic Life Cycle: A Cross-Cultural Perspective.”

    His research on this topic began with his interest in the Social Security Program back when he attended Graduate School in the late 1960’s.  At that time, the studies of the Social Security Program usually provided three projections on the viability of the program based on optimality,  “High, Medium, and Low.”  Professor Lee, in disagreeing with certain aspects of the studies, went about disproving these points.  He also wanted to take probability into account when making these projections, so using fertility rates and other data, he published his paper and a probabilistic projection of the Social Security Program upon graduation.  He found most of his basic data from government sources, such as The National Center for Health Statistics.  Twenty years later, he incorporated new data he gathered regarding mortality rates.  Since then, he has worked with a partner who is an experienced mathematician in further expanding his research.  About ten years ago, they published a paper containing a stochastic population projection that has been of great interest to many professionals in the field.  They consistently update their findings, as well as take new critical factors into account, such as productivity growth rates, interest rates, etc.

    Another paper he spoke with me about, “Life Cycle Saving and the Demographic Transition in East Asia,” highlighted a more difficult area in conducting research.  He had once read an article based on a regression analysis performed cross nationally in East Asia that suggested that the decline in fertility rates motivated the people to save more.  He knew that his arguments would be based on the Life Cycle Saving Theory, so he did have a fairly good idea of the “ingredients” he would need for his analysis.  The hardest part, however, was in tapping into all possible resources to find valid evidence that would support certain assumptions that must be made of immeasurable factors that must be taken into account.  In this example, some major questions would be how expectations are formed, and also how cultural differences in societal norms may be an influence in the study.

    Aside from Economics, Professor Lee seems to also be very knowledgeable in many other areas such as demographics, statistical analysis, etc.  I highly suggest that you learn more about Professor Lee and his research interests through the Demography Dept website at http://demog.berkeley.edu