Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Quantedge Presidential Professor of Economics
Department of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
phone: (510) 643-0720
fax: (510) 642-6615
email: ygorodni@econ.berkeley.edu
Other affiliations:
NBER, Faculty research associate
CEPR, Research fellow
IZA, Research fellow
Journal of Monetary Economics, Editor
Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, Editor
SF Fed, Visiting scholar
Information
Curriculum vitae (PDF) | Teaching | Macro/Int’l Reading Group | Research Statement | Ukraine | VoxUkraine | Econ4Ukraine | CEPR Ukraine Initiative | U.S. Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations | Photo
Publications
"Rebuilding Ukraine: Principles and policies,"
coedited with Ilona
Sologoub and Beatrice Weder di
Mauro, 2022, CEPR Press, PDF,
українська
версія.
"Ukraine’s Reconstruction: Policy Options for Building an
Effective Financial Architecture," joint with Elena Carletti, Harold James, Jan-Pieter
Krahnen, Vladyslav
Rashkovan, Alexander
Rodnyansky, and Ilona
Sologoub, 2024, CEPR Press, PDF,
українська
версія.
"How to Rebuild Ukraine: A Synthesis and Critical Review of
Policy Proposals," with Torbjörn Becker and Beatrice Weder di
Mauro, PDF (CEPR), accepted
for publication in Annual Review of Economics.
"Tell Me Something I Don’t Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation
Settings" with Hassan Afrouzi, Bernardo
Candia, Olivier Coibion, Serafin
Frache, Dimitris Georgarakos,
Geoff Kenny, Saten Kumar, Rodrigo Lluberas, Brent Meyer, Jorge Ponce, Tiziano Ropele, Michael Weber, PDF (NBER, CEPR, IZA), accepted for publication in Econometrica.
"The Economics of Financial Stress," with Dmitriy Sergeyev and
Chen Lian, PDF (NBER, IZA), accepted for publication in Review of Economic Studies.
"The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic
Expectations, and Consumer Spending,"
with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, Link
(PDF, NBER,
IZA, BFI),
Journal of Economic
Behavior and Organization 229(2025):
106846.
- In media: VoxEU.
"Central Bank Communication on Social Media: What, To Whom, and
How?" with Tho Pham and Oleksandr Talavera, Link
(PDF), accepted
for publication in Journal of Econometrics.
"A Research Program on Monetary Policy for Europe," with Carlo Altavilla, Matthieu
Bussičre, Jordi
Galí, Refet
Gürkaynak, and Hélčne
Rey, Link, Journal of Monetary Economics 147(S): 103673.
"Monetary Policy in Europe: Out of the Woods?" in Michael Bordo, John
Cochrane, and John Taylor, eds., Getting
Global Monetary Policy on Track, Link (PDF).
"The Inflation
Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a new survey," with Bernardo
Candia and Olivier
Coibion, Link
(PDF, NBER, CEPR,
IZA), Journal of Monetary
Economics 145(2024): 103569.
-
In
media: Econbrowser,
CentralBanking,
Reuters,
Brookings,
Economist,
WSJ,
Economist.
"The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers," with Ethan M.L. McClure, Vita Yaremko, and Olivier Coibion, PDF (NBER, IZA), accepted for publication in Journal
of Money, Credit and Banking.
"Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence
from Italy," with Olivier Coibion and Tiziano Ropele, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA), AER Insights 6(2024): 246-261.
"Unbundling of Quantitative Easing: Taking a Cue from Treasury
Auctions," with Michael Droste
and Walker Ray, Link (PDF, NBER), Journal of Political Economy 132(2024):
3115–3172.
"Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France,"
with Olivier Coibion, Erwan Gautier,
and Frédérique
Savignac, Link
(PDF, NBER, CEPR,
IZA), Journal of European
Economic Association 22(6) 2748–2781.
"The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions," with Olivier Coibion and Saten Kumar, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA) Econometrica 91(2023): 1297–1332.
"The
Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending," with Olivier Coibion,
Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff
Kenny, and Michael
Weber, Link (PDF, ECB,
NBER, CEPR, IZA), American Economic Review
114(2024): 645–677.
"The Voice of Monetary
Policy," with Tho Pham and Oleksandr Talavera, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR)
American Economic Review 113(2023): 548-584.
-
In
media: CentalBanking,
FT,
UBirmingham,
Reuters,
Globe&Mail.
"Culture and Global
Sourcing," with Bohdan Kukharskyy and Gérard Roland, Link
(PDF,
NBER, CEPR)
Journal
of Development Economics 166 (2024): 103175.
- in media: VoxEU.org.
"Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation of US Firms,"
with Bernardo
Candia, Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, Link (PDF) AEA
Papers and Proceedings 113(2023): 52-55.
"Macroeconomic Frameworks: Reconciling Evidence and Model
Predictions from Demand Shocks,"
with Alan Auerbach
and Daniel Murphy, PDF (NBER), accepted for publication
in AEJ Macroeconomics.
"Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," with Olivier
Coibion, Dimitris
Georgarakos, and Michael Weber, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA),
Journal of European Economic Association 21(2023): 2131–2171.
"Average Inflation
Targeting and Household Expectations," with Olivier Coibion,
Edward
Knotek, and Raphael
Schoenle, Link
(PDF, NBER, CEPR,
Cleveland
Fed), Journal of Political Economy – Macroeconomics 1(2023): 403–446.
- In media: Reuters, WSJ, Handelsblatt, Reuters II, CB, VoxEU, Loretta Mester, NYT.
"Monetary policy communications and their effects on household inflation expectations," with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, Link (PDF, NBER), Journal of Political Economy 130(2022).
-
In
media: WSJ,
Bloomberg,
VoxEU,
ECB,
Lagarde,
Bundesbank, Bank
of Canada.
"The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the COVID19 Pandemic," with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA) IMF Economic Review 72(2023): 326–368.
"The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," with Olivier Coibion, Francesco D’Acunto, and Michael Weber, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA), Journal of Economic Perspectives 36(2022): 157–184.
"The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline
Prices," with Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Dmitri Koustas, Matthew
D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, Steve Tadelis, Link (PDF,
appendix) AEJ Macroeconomics 15(2023): 129-160.
-
in
media: Econbrowser, Janet
Yellen.
"The Macroeconomic
Expectations of Firms," with Bernardo Candia and Olivier Coibion, PDF, Appendix,
Handbook of Economic Expectations.
"How Does Consumption Respond to News About Inflation? Field
Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," with Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, and Maarten
van Rooij, Link
(PDF, NBER, IZA), AEJ Macroeconomics 15(2023):
109-152.
"Fiscal Multipliers in the COVID19 Recession," with Alan Auerbach, Dan
Murphy and Peter McCrory, Link
(PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA),
Journal International Money and
Finance 126(2022), 102669.
"Comment on "Losing the Inflation Anchor" by Ricardo
Reis," accepted for publication in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2021(Fall), Link
(PDF).
"Do You Know That I Know That You Know…? Higher-order Beliefs in
Survey Data," with Olivier
Coibion, Saten Kumar,
and Jane Ryngaert, Link
(PDF, NBER), Quarterly Journal of
Economics 136(2021), 1387–1446.
"Social media, sentiment
and public opinions: Evidence from #Brexit and #USElection," with Tho Pham and Oleksandr Talavera, Link
(PDF, NBER), European Economic Review 136(2021), 103772.
-
in
media: Time,
WSJ,
Huffington,
Berkeley
News.
"Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined
Economy," with Alan Auerbach and Daniel Murphy, Link
(PDF, NBER), European Economic
Review 137(2021), 103810.
"No Firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ aggregate expectations," with Philippe Andrade, Olivier Coibion, and Erwan Gautier, Link (PDF, NBER), Journal of Monetary Economics (CRN) 125(2022): 40-56.
"Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?" with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, Link PDF (NBER, IZA, BFI), International Journal of Central Banking 72(2022).
"Consumption Inequality
and the Frequency of Purchases," with Olivier Coibion and Dmitri Koustas, Link
(PDF, appendix,
NBER, IZA),
AEJ Macroeconomics 13(2021): 449-482.
-
In
media: Financial
Post, NBER Digest,
VoxEU,
AEA.
"Conference presentations and academic publishing," with Tho Pham and Oleksandr Talavera, Link (PDF, NBER), Economic Modelling 95(2021): 228-254.
"Quality and Price Setting of High-Tech Goods," with Oleksandr Talavera and Nam Vu, Link
(PDF, NBER, IZA), Economic Modelling 98(2021): 69-85.
"Communication and the
Beliefs of Economic Agents," with
Bernardo Candia and Olivier Coibion, in Navigating
the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy, Economic Policy
Symposium (Jackson Hole, WY) Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City,
2020. Link
(PDF, NBER).
- In media: NYT, La Jornada, Infobae, Bloomberg, S&P Global, Yahoo, NRC, FT, Christine Lagarde, Jens Weidmann.
"Inflation Expectations as
a Policy Tool?" with Olivier
Coibion, Saten Kumar,
and Mathieu Pedemonte, Link
(PDF, NBER), Journal of International
Economics 124(2020).
-
In
media: Frankfurter
Allgemeine, Bloomberg,
Handelsblatt,
WSJ,
Bloomberg
II, ECB,
ECB
II, Bundesbank,
Bundesbank II, Bundesbank III, Economist,
EU.
"Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," with Olivier Coibion and Tiziano Ropele, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA), Quarterly Journal of Economics 135 (2020), 165–219.
"Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets," with Alan Auerbach and Daniel Murphy, Link (PDF, NBER), AEA Papers and Proceedings 110(2020): 119-124.
"Culture, Institutions and
Democratization," with Gérard Roland, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR),
Public Choice 187(2021): 165–195.
- in media: VoxEU.org, Vedomosti.
"Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States," with Alan Auerbach and Daniel Murphy, Link (PDF, NBER), IMF Economic Review 68(2020):195–229.
"Does Foreign Entry Spur Innovation?" with Jan Svejnar and Katherine Terrell, Link
(PDF, NBER, CEPR),
European
Economic Review 121(2020): 103343.
"Does Greater Inequality
Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data,"
with Olivier Coibion, Marianna Kudlyak, and
John Mondragon,
Link
(PDF, NBER, IZA, Richmond
Fed WP), Journal of European Economic Association 18(2020):
2922–2971.
- in media: CreditCardBlog, CentralBanking.com, VoxEU, WashingtonPost, Bank of England.
"A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections,"
with Byoungchan Lee, Link (PDF, Appendix;
NBER), Journal
of Business and Economic Statistics 38(2020), 921-933.
"The Cyclical
Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," with Olivier
Coibion and Mauricio Ulate, Link (PDF, NBER), Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity 2018 (Fall), 343-434.
-
in
media: FT,
Equitable
Growth Blog, VoxEU,
Bank
of England, CBPP,
Blanchard,
Bernstein,
NYT, ECB,
FT,
BdF, JEC
Congress, Christine
Lagarde.
"Is Inflation Just
Around the Corner? The Phillips
Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures,"
with Olivier Coibion and Mauricio Ulate, Link (PDF, NBER), American Economic Association
Papers and Proceedings 109 (2019), 465-469.
-
in
media: Bloomberg.
"The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices:
Business Cycle and Policy Implications: Reply" with Olivier
Coibion and Gee Hee
Hong, Link
(PDF), American
Economic Review 109(2019), 314-324.
"How Do Firms Form Their
Expectations? New Survey Evidence," with
Olivier Coibion
and Saten Kumar, American
Economic Review 108(2018), 2671-2713, Link
(PDF, NBER).
-
in
media: Janet
Yellen, ECB,
ECB
II, Bundesbank,
Cleveland
Fed, Bundesbank,
BdF.
"Price Setting in Online
Markets: Does IT Click?" with Slavik Sheremirov
and Oleksandr Talavera, Link,
(PDF,
NBER, Boston Fed WP),
Journal of European Economic Association 16(2018), 1764-1811.
-
in
media: VoxEU.org,
Berkeley
Blog, PBS,
Bloomberg,
ECB.
"The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," with Olivier Coibion and Rupal Kamdar, Link (PDF, NBER), Journal of Economic Literature 56(2018), 1447-1491.
"The Responses of Internet Retail Prices to Aggregate Shocks: A
High-Frequency Approach," with Slavik Sheremirov
and Oleksandr Talavera, Economics
Letters 164(2018), 124-127, Link
(PDF).
"Fiscal Stimulus and
Fiscal Sustainability," with Alan Auerbach,
in Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy,
Economic Policy Symposium (Jackson Hole, WY) Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank
of Kansas City, 2017. Link
(PDF,
NBER).
-
in
media: FT,
Bloomberg,
Bloomberg
II, Reuters,
Daily
Mail, SF
Chronicle, Econbrowser,
Equitable
Growth, Forbes,
Economist,
Economist
II, ECB,
Süddeutsche
Zeitung, Süddeutsche
Zeitung II, Niskanen.
"Level and Volatility Factors in Macroeconomic Data," with Serena
Ng, Journal of Monetary Economics 91(2017), 52-68, Link,
(PDF, NBER).
"Fiscal Multipliers in Japan," with Alan Auerbach,
Research
in Economics 71(2017), 411-421, Link
(PDF, NBER).
"Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy
-
in
media: CBS,
Handelsblatt,
Econbrowser,
Econbrowser
II, Economist's
View, CentralBanking.com,
Economist,
Economist
II, Economist
III, ECB,
ECB
II, ECB
III, BIS, Slate.com,
Financial
Times, Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis, VoxEU.org,
Paul
Krugman, Berkeley
Blog, Bank
of England, Bank
of England II, Bank
of England III, Handelsblatt
II, Bundesbank,
Bloomberg.
-
Data: Updated
Romer-Romer monetary policy shocks.
"Price setting in online
markets: Basic facts, international comparisons, and cross-border
integration," with Oleksandr Talavera,
American
Economic Review 107(2017),
217-248, Link
(PDF,
NBER).
-
In
media: VoxEU.org,
Berkeley
Blog, ECB,
ECB
II.
"Culture, institutions and
the wealth of nations," with Gérard Roland, Review
of Economics and Statistics 99(2017), 402–416, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA, SSRN)
-
in
media: VoxEU.org, Scientific
American
-
Data:
Stata dta
and do files.
"Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," with Olivier Coibion, Marc Dordal-i-Carreras, and Johannes Wieland, Annual Review of Economics (2016), 497–520, Link (PDF, NBER).
"Are Sticky Prices Costly?
Evidence From The Stock Market," with Michael Weber, American
Economic Review 106(2016), 165-199, Link
(online
appendix) (PDF,
NBER, SSRN).
-
in
media: Econbrowser,
Brad
DeLong, The
Economist, AEA Blog.
"Effects of Fiscal Shocks
in a Globalized World," with
Alan Auerbach, IMF
Economic Review 64(2016), 177-215, Link
(PDF, NBER).
-
in
media: VoxEU.org.
"Inflation Targeting Does
Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand,"
with Hassan Afrouzi, Olivier Coibion and Saten Kumar, Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity 2015
(Fall), 151-225, Link
(PDF, NBER).
-
in
media: Financial
Times (FT), FT-2,
FT-3,Washington
Post, Bloomberg,
NZ
Herald, CFO,
Week,
VoxEU,
ValueWalk,
Bloomberg.
"Inflation Expectations in Ukraine: A Long Path to Anchoring?" with Olivier Coibion, Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine 223(2015), 6-21, Link.
"Information Rigidity and
the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts,"
with Olivier Coibion, American
Economic Review 105(2015), 2644–2678, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN, IMF).
-
in
media: VoxEU.org,
Noahpinion
blog.
"The Cyclicality of Sales,
Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications,"
with Olivier Coibion and Gee Hee Hong, American
Economic Review 105(2015), 993-1029, Link (PDF, NBER, IMF).
-
in
media: Econbrowser.
"Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well After
All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," with Olivier Coibion, American
Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 7(2015), 197-232, Link (PDF, NBER).
- in media: Econbrowser, MarginalRevolution, Reuters, VoxEU, Bruegel, Globe and Mail, ECB, ECB II, ECB III, ECB IV, ECB V, ECB VI, The Economist, WSJ, Bank of Canada, Bundesbank, Cleveland Fed, BIS, FT, Bundesbank.
"When Does FDI Have Positive Spillovers? Evidence from 17 Emerging Market Economies," with Jan Svejnar and Katherine Terrell, Journal of Comparative Economics 42(2014), 954-969, Link (PDF, earlier version IZA).
"Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle
of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence," with Olivier Coibion and Dmitri Koustas, Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity Fall (2013) link
(PDF, NBER, IZA, SSRN)
-
in
media: Washington
Post, Slate,
Business
week, Business
Insider, American
Enterprise Institute, Al
Jazeera, The
Economist, Marginal
Revolution.
"Output Spillovers from
Fiscal Policy," with Alan Auerbach, American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 103(2013), 141-146. Link (PDF,
longer version: PDF,
NBER)
"Financial
constraints and innovation: Why poor countries don't catch up," with Monika
Schnitzer, Journal of European Economic Association 11(2013),
1115–1152, Link
(PDF,
NBER, IZA).
-
in
media: VoxEU.org.
"What can survey forecasts
tell us about informational rigidities?" with Olivier Coibion, Journal
of Political Economy 120(2012), 116-159. Link (NBER, PDF)
-
in
media: VoxEU.org.
"Why are target interest
rate changes so persistent?" with Olivier Coibion, American
Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 4(2012), 126–162, Link (NBER, SSRN, PDF)
-
in
media: VoxEU.org
"The optimal inflation
rate in New Keynesian models," with Olivier Coibion and Johannes Wieland, Review
of Economic Studies 79(2012), 1371-1406, Link (NBER, SSRN, PDF)
-
in
media: Econbrowser,
Bundesbank,
ECB.
"The Finnish Great Depression: From
Russia with love," with Linda
Tesar and Enrique Mendoza,
American
Economic Review 102(2012), 1619–1644, Link
(PDF, NBER, SSRN, IZA)
-
in
media: Slon.
"Estimators for persistent
and possibly non-stationary data with classical properties," with Anna Mikusheva and Serena
Ng, Econometric Theory 28(2012), 1003–1036, Link (NBER,
PDF).
"Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and
Expansion," with Alan Auerbach, in
Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis,
Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, eds., University of Chicago Press,
2012. PDF.
-
in
media: Bloomberg.
"Measuring the Output Responses to
Fiscal Policy," with Alan Auerbach, American
Economic Journal – Economic Policy 4(2012), 1–27, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN.).
-
award: AEJ: Economic Policy Best Paper Prize,
2015, American Economic
Association.
-
in
media: VoxEU.org, International
Business Times, The
Economist, Econbrowser,
Jeff
Frankel, Econbrowser
II, New
York Times, Economic Report
of the President.
"Sensitivity of Prices to Demand Shocks:
A Natural Experiment in the San Francisco Bay Area," with Volodymyr
Bilotkach and Oleksandr Talavera, Transportation
Research Part A: Policy and Practice 46(2012), 1137–1151, Link
(PDF).
“Individualism, innovation, and long-run growth,” with Gérard Roland, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(S4, 2011), 21316-21319, Link.
"Monetary Policy, Trend
Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," with Olivier Coibion, American
Economic Review 101(2011), 341–370, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN)
-
in
media: DeLong;
VoxEU.org, Bundesbank.
"Strategic interaction among heterogeneous price-setters in
an estimated DSGE model," with Olivier Coibion, Review
of Economics and Statistics 93(2011), 920-40, Link (NBER, SSRN, PDF)
"Which dimensions of
culture matter for long run growth?" with Gérard Roland, American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 101(2011), 492-498, Link (PDF)
-
in
media: MIT
Management Review.
"Myth and reality of flat
tax reform: Micro estimates of tax evasion and productivity response in
Russia," with Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and
Klara
Sabirianova Peter, Journal of Political Economy
117(2009), 504-554, Link (SSRN, NBER, IZA).
-
in
media: WSJ;
VoxEU.org; Guardian.
"Estimation of DSGE models
when data are persistent," with Serena
Ng, Journal of Monetary Economics 57(2010), 325–340, Link
(PDF,
NBER, SSRN)
-
in
media: Econbrowser.
"Globalization and
innovation in emerging markets," with Jan Svejnar and Katherine Terrell, American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 2(2010), 194–226, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA)
-
in
media: MIT
Sloan Management Review.
"Inequality and Volatility
Moderation in Russia: Evidence from Micro-Level Panel Data on Consumption and
Income," with Dmitriy
Stolyarov and Klara Sabirianova Peter,
Review
of Economic Dynamics 13(2010),
209-237, Link (NBER, SSRN, IZA).
-
in
media: Vedomosti
(in Russian).
"Border effect or country effect? Seattle may not be so far from
Vancouver after all," with Linda
Tesar, American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 1(2009), 219–241, Link (NBER, SSRN)
-
previous
title: "Re-examination of the Border Effect in PPP Tests: Where is the
Border?"
"Are Airlines’
Price-Setting Strategies Different?"
with Volodymyr
Bilotkach and Oleksandr Talavera, Journal
of Air Transport Management 16(2009), 1-6, Link
(SSRN).
"Financial
Constraints and Continental Business Groups: Evidence from German Konzerns," with Dorothea Schafer and Oleksandr
Talavera, Research in International Business and Finance 23(2009), 233–242, Link
(SSRN).
"Are oligarchs productive?
Theory and evidence," with Yegor Grygorenko, Journal of Comparative Economics
36(2008), 17-42, Link
(SSRN, IZA).
-
award: Montias prize for the best article
published in the Journal of Comparative Economics in 2008-2009.
-
in
media: Guardian.
"Monetary policy
when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the
1990s," with Matthew
D. Shapiro, Journal of Monetary Economics 54(4), 1132-1162. Link
(SSRN, NBER).
-
in
media: WSJ.
"Public sector pay
and corruption: Measuring bribery from micro data," with Klara Sabirianova
Peter, Journal of Public Economics 91(2007), 963-991. Link
(SSRN, IZA).
-
in
media: World Bank’s Beyond
Transition 17(3).
"Returns to schooling in Ukraine and Russia: A semiparametric approach to cross-country comparative analysis," with Klara Sabirianova Peter, Journal of Comparative Economics 33(2005), 223-240. Link (SSRN, IZA).
Working papers
"The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households’
Beliefs and Actions," with Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, and Geoff
Kenny, PDF (NBER, CEPR, IZA)
"Higher-Order Beliefs and Risky Asset Holdings," with Xiao
Yin, PDF (NBER, CEPR, IZA)
"SAFE
to Update Inflation Expectations? New Survey Evidence on Euro Area Firms,"
with Ursel Baumann, Annalisa Ferrando, Dimitris Georgarakos,
and Timo Reinelt,
PDF (NBER, CEPR, IZA,
ECB)
"On
Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations,"
with Valerie Boctor, Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER)
"Keeping up with the Jansens: Causal Peer Effects on
Household Spending, Beliefs and Happiness," with
Bernardo
Candia, Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos,
and Maarten van Rooij,
PDF (NBER, CEPR, IZA)
"Lifetime Memories
of Inflation: Evidence from Surveys and the Lab," with Isabelle Salle, Olivier Coibion,
PDF (NBER, CEPR, IZA)
"Keep Calm and Bank On: Panic-Driven Bank
Runs and the Role of Public Communication," with Damiano
Sandri, Francesco Grigoli, Olivier Coibion,
PDF (NBER, CEPR)
"Do You Even
Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance," with Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER, IZA)
"Inflation
Expectations and Corporate Borrowing Decisions: New Causal Evidence," with
Olivier
Coibion and
Tiziano
Ropele,
PDF (NBER, IZA)
(revise and resubmit in Review of Economic Studies)
"Demand Stimulus as Social Policy," with Alan Auerbach and Dan
Murphy, PDF
(NBER, IZA)
(revise and resubmit in Review of Economic Studies)
"Information and the Formation of Inflation Expectations by Firms: Evidence from a Survey of Israeli Firms," (with Ari Kutai and Rafi Melnick), PDF (NBER, IZA) (revise and resubmit at AEJ Macroeconomics).
-
In
media: Economist.
"Expectations Formation
and Forward Information," with
Nathan Goldstein, PDF (NBER, CEPR)
(revise and resubmit in Review of Economic Studies)
"Zero
Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations," with Dmitriy Sergeyev, PDF (NBER, CEPR,
IZA)
"Fiscal Policy and
Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control
Trial," with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER, IZA, BFI)
-
In
media: WJS
"Political Polarization
and Expected Economic Outcomes," with Olivier Coibion
and Michael
Weber, PDF (NBER, IZA, BFI)
- In media: VoxEU, Houston Chronicle, John Cochrane, Chicago Booth Review.
"How Did U.S. Consumers Use
Their Stimulus Payments?" with
Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER, IZA, BFI)
- In media: Economist, VoxEU, NBER, Washington Post, NYT, WSJ.
"Labor Markets during
the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View,"
with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER, IZA, BFI)
-
In
media: VoxEU,
IZA,
Quartz,
Politico,
Yahoo,
MSN.Money,
Bloomberg,
MarketWatch,
Hill,
Narayana
Kocherlakota, AARP,
NYT,
ERP.
"Resource Misallocation in
European Firms: The Role of Constraints, Firm Characteristics and Managerial
Decisions," with Debora
Revoltella, Jan
Svejnar, and Christoph
Weiss, PDF
(NBER, IZA, CEPR)
(revise and resubmit at AEJ Macroeconomics).
-
in
media: NBER Digest.
"Linkages and Economic Development," with Dominick Bartelme, PDF (NBER).
"Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence," PDF (NBER) (revise and resubmit at Journal of Monetary Economics).
"Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing," with Jae Song and Dmitriy Stolyarov, PDF (MRRC,
NBER, IZA).
"Using the Survey of Plant Capacity to Measure Capital
Utilization," with Matthew D. Shapiro, US
Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies Discussion Paper 11-18 (July
2011). PDF,
data.
"Using firm optimization to evaluate and estimate productivity and returns to scale," PDF (NBER).
-
previous
title: "Estimating Returns
to Scale: Critique of Popular Estimators and New Solutions to Old
Problems".
"Reduced rank identification of structural shocks in VARs," PDF.
Publications in Ukrainian
Books
Contemporary econometric
methods in finance, Kiev,
Ukraine, 2002 (with Iryna
Luckyanenko)
Econometric modeling of local government
budgets, Kiev, Ukraine, 2001
(with Iryna
Lukyanenko and Larisa
Krasnikova)
Methodological aspects of development and
application of macroeconometric models: The case of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine, 2000 (with Iryna
Lukyanenko and Kwaja Sultan)
Articles
"Error correction models for forecasting tax revenues," Finance of Ukraine, 2001 (with Iryna Lukyanenko)
"The impact of tax sharing on the effectiveness of the local tax policy," Scientific Records of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, 2001 (with Taras Tokarchuk)
"The flypaper effect: The case of Ukraine," Scientific Records of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, 2001
"Modeling monetary side of Ukraine's economy," Scientific Records of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, 2000 (with Iryna Lukyanenko)
"Distribution of intergovernmental grants among Ukraine's
regions," Herald of the National Bank of Ukraine,
1999 (with Iryna
Lukyanenko)
Chapters
"Inter-budgetary
reform in Cherkaska oblast" in The system of public finance in Ukraine:
The ways of providing transparency and optimal decentralization of financial
flows, Ihor Burakovskiy, ed., Kiev: East-West Institute, 2001.