Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Quantedge Presidential Professor of Economics
Department of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880

phone: (510) 643-0720

fax: (510) 642-6615
email: ygorodni@econ.berkeley.edu


VoxUkraine, a blog on Ukraine.

Tweets by @voxukraine


Other affiliations:

NBER, Faculty research associate

IZA, Research fellow

Journal of Monetary Economics, Editor

Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, Editor

SF Fed, Visiting scholar



Curriculum vitae (PDF) | Teaching | Macro/Int’l Reading Group | Research Statement | Ukraine | Photo



"Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," with Olivier Coibion and Tiziano Ropele, PDF (NBER, IZA), accepted for publication at Quarterly Journal of Economics.

"Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data," with Olivier Coibion, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon, PDF (NBER, IZA, Richmond Fed WP), accepted for publication in Journal of European Economic Association.

-        in media: CreditCardBlog, CentralBanking.com, VoxEU, WashingtonPost, Bank of England. 

"A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections," with Byoungchan Lee, PDF, Appendix (NBER), accepted for publication in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

"The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," with Olivier Coibion and Mauricio Ulate, PDF (NBER), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2018 (Fall), 343-434.

-        in media: FT, Equitable Growth Blog, VoxEU, Bank of England, CBPP, Blanchard, Bernstein, NYT,  ECB, FT.

"Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures," with Olivier Coibion and Mauricio Ulate, Link (PDF, NBER), American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 109 (2019), 465-469.

-        in media: Bloomberg.

"The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications: Reply" with Olivier Coibion and Gee Hee Hong, Link (PDF), American Economic Review 109(2019), 314-324.

"How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," with  Olivier Coibion and Saten Kumar, American Economic Review 108(2018), 2671-2713, Link (PDF,  NBER).

-        in media: Janet Yellen, ECB, Bundesbank, Cleveland Fed.

"Price Setting in Online Markets: Does IT Click?" with Slavik Sheremirov and Oleksandr Talavera, Link, (PDF, NBER, Boston Fed WP), Journal of European Economic Association 16(2018), 1764-1811.

-        in media: VoxEU.org, Berkeley Blog, PBS, Bloomberg, ECB.

"The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," with Olivier Coibion and Rupal Kamdar, Link (PDF, NBER), Journal of Economic Literature 56(2018), 1447-1491.

"The Responses of Internet Retail Prices to Aggregate Shocks: A High-Frequency Approach," with Slavik Sheremirov and Oleksandr Talavera, Economics Letters 164(2018), 124-127, Link (PDF).

"Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability," with Alan Auerbach, in Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy, Economic Policy Symposium (Jackson Hole, WY) Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2017.  Link (PDF, NBER).

-        in media: FT, Bloomberg, Bloomberg II, Reuters, Daily Mail, SF Chronicle, Econbrowser, Equitable Growth, Forbes, Economist, Economist II, ECB, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Süddeutsche Zeitung II.

"Level and Volatility Factors in Macroeconomic Data," with Serena Ng, Journal of Monetary Economics 91(2017), 52-68, Link, (PDF, NBER).

"Fiscal Multipliers in Japan," with Alan Auerbach, Research in Economics 71(2017), 411-421, Link (PDF, NBER).

"Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S." with Olivier Coibion, Lorenz Kueng, and John Silvia, Journal of Monetary Economics 88(2017), 70-88, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA, SSRN, IMF).

-        in media: CBS, Handelsblatt, Econbrowser, Econbrowser II, Economist's View, CentralBanking.com, Economist, Economist II, Economist III, ECB, ECB II, ECB III, BIS, Slate.com, Financial Times, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, VoxEU.org, Paul Krugman, Berkeley Blog, Bank of England, Bank of England II, Bank of England III, Handelsblatt II, Bundesbank, Bloomberg.

-        Data: Updated Romer-Romer monetary policy shocks.

"Price setting in online markets: Basic facts, international comparisons, and cross-border integration," with Oleksandr Talavera, American Economic Review  107(2017), 217-248, Link (PDF, NBER).

-        In media: VoxEU.org, Berkeley Blog, ECB, ECB II.

"Culture, institutions and the wealth of nations," with Gérard Roland, Review of Economics and Statistics 99(2017), 402–416, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA, SSRN)

-        in media: VoxEU.org, Scientific American

-        Data: Stata dta and do files.

"Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," with Olivier Coibion, Marc Dordal-i-Carreras, and Johannes Wieland, Annual Review of Economics  (2016), 497–520, Link (PDF, NBER).

-        in media: VoxEU.org, CEA.

"Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence From The Stock Market," with Michael Weber, American Economic Review 106(2016), 165-199, Link (online appendix) (PDF, NBER, SSRN).

-        in media: Econbrowser, Brad DeLong, The Economist, AEA Blog. 

"Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World," with Alan Auerbach, IMF Economic Review 64(2016), 177-215, Link (PDF, NBER).

-        in media: VoxEU.org. 

"Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand," with Hassan Afrouzi, Olivier Coibion and Saten Kumar, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2015 (Fall), 151-225, Link (PDF, NBER).

-        in media: Financial Times (FT), FT-2, FT-3,Washington Post, Bloomberg, NZ Herald, CFO, Week, VoxEU, ValueWalk, Bloomberg.

"Inflation Expectations in Ukraine: A Long Path to Anchoring?" with Olivier Coibion, Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine 223(2015), 6-21, Link.


"Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," with Olivier Coibion, American Economic Review 105(2015), 2644–2678, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN, IMF).

-        in media: VoxEU.org, Noahpinion blog.

"The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications," with Olivier Coibion and Gee Hee Hong, American Economic Review 105(2015), 993-1029, Link (PDF, NBER, IMF).

-        in media: Econbrowser.

"Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," with Olivier Coibion, American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 7(2015), 197-232, Link (PDF, NBER).

-        in media: Econbrowser, MarginalRevolution, Reuters, VoxEU, Bruegel, Globe and Mail, ECB, ECB II, ECB III,  ECB IV, ECB V, The Economist, WSJ, Bank of Canada, Bundesbank, Cleveland Fed, BIS, FT. 

"When Does FDI Have Positive Spillovers? Evidence from 17 Emerging Market Economies," with Jan Svejnar and Katherine Terrell, Journal of Comparative Economics 42(2014), 954-969, Link (PDF, earlier version IZA).


"Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence," with Olivier Coibion and Dmitri Koustas, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall (2013) link (PDF, NBER, IZA, SSRN)

-        in media: Washington Post, Slate, Business week, Business Insider, American Enterprise Institute, Al Jazeera, The Economist, Marginal Revolution.

"Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," with Alan Auerbach, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 103(2013), 141-146. Link (PDF, longer version: PDF, NBER)

-        in media: VoxEU.org, Slate.

"Financial constraints and innovation: Why poor countries don't catch up," with Monika Schnitzer, Journal of European Economic Association 11(2013), 1115–1152, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA).

-        in media: VoxEU.org.

"What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?" with Olivier Coibion, Journal of Political Economy 120(2012), 116-159. Link (NBER, PDF)

-        in media: VoxEU.org.

"Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?" with Olivier Coibion, American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 4(2012), 126–162, Link (NBER, SSRN, PDF)

-        in media: VoxEU.org

"The optimal inflation rate in New Keynesian models," with Olivier Coibion and Johannes Wieland, Review of Economic Studies 79(2012), 1371-1406, Link (NBER, SSRN, PDF)

-        in media: Econbrowser, Bundesbank, ECB.

"The Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with love," with Linda Tesar and Enrique Mendoza, American Economic Review 102(2012), 1619–1644, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN, IZA)

-        in media: Slon.

"Estimators for persistent and possibly non-stationary data with classical properties," with Anna Mikusheva and Serena Ng, Econometric Theory 28(2012), 1003–1036, Link (NBER, PDF).

"Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," with Alan Auerbach, in Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, eds., University of Chicago Press, 2012. PDF.

-        in media: Bloomberg.

"Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," with Alan Auerbach, American Economic Journal – Economic Policy 4(2012), 1–27, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN.).

-        award: AEJ: Economic Policy Best Paper Prize, 2015, American Economic Association.

-        in media: VoxEU.org, International Business Times, The Economist, Econbrowser, Jeff Frankel, Econbrowser II, New York Times, Economic Report of the President.

"Sensitivity of Prices to Demand Shocks: A Natural Experiment in the San Francisco Bay Area," with Volodymyr Bilotkach and Oleksandr Talavera, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 46(2012), 1137–1151, Link (PDF).

“Individualism, innovation, and long-run growth,” with Gérard Roland, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(S4, 2011), 21316-21319, Link.


"Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," with Olivier Coibion, American Economic Review 101(2011), 341–370, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN)

-        in media: DeLong; VoxEU.org, Bundesbank. 

"Strategic interaction among heterogeneous price-setters in an estimated DSGE model," with Olivier Coibion, Review of Economics and Statistics 93(2011), 920-40, Link (NBER, SSRN, PDF)

"Which dimensions of culture matter for long run growth?" with Gérard Roland, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 101(2011), 492-498, Link (PDF)

"Myth and reality of flat tax reform: Micro estimates of tax evasion and productivity response in Russia," with Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Klara Sabirianova Peter, Journal of Political Economy 117(2009), 504-554, Link (SSRN, NBER, IZA).

-        award: National Prize in Applied Economics, Russia.

-        in media: WSJ; VoxEU.org; Guardian.

"Estimation of DSGE models when data are persistent," with Serena Ng, Journal of Monetary Economics 57(2010), 325–340, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN)

-        in media: Econbrowser.

"Globalization and innovation in emerging markets," with Jan Svejnar and Katherine Terrell, American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 2(2010), 194–226, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA)

-        in media: MIT Sloan Management Review.

"Inequality and Volatility Moderation in Russia: Evidence from Micro-Level Panel Data on Consumption and Income," with Dmitriy Stolyarov and Klara Sabirianova Peter, Review of Economic Dynamics 13(2010), 209-237, Link (NBER, SSRN, IZA).

-        in media: Vedomosti (in Russian).

"Border effect or country effect? Seattle may not be so far from Vancouver after all," with Linda Tesar, American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 1(2009), 219–241, Link (NBER, SSRN)

-        previous title: "Re-examination of the Border Effect in PPP Tests: Where is the Border?"

"Are Airlines’ Price-Setting Strategies Different?" with Volodymyr Bilotkach and Oleksandr Talavera, Journal of Air Transport Management 16(2009), 1-6, Link (SSRN).

"Financial Constraints and Continental Business Groups: Evidence from German Konzerns," with Dorothea Schafer and Oleksandr Talavera, Research in International Business and Finance 23(2009), 233–242, Link (SSRN).

"Are oligarchs productive? Theory and evidence," with Yegor Grygorenko, Journal of Comparative Economics 36(2008), 17-42, Link (SSRN, IZA).

-        award: Montias prize for the best article published in the Journal of Comparative Economics in 2008-2009.

-        in media: Guardian.

"Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s," with Matthew D. Shapiro, Journal of Monetary Economics 54(4), 1132-1162. Link (SSRN, NBER).

-        in media: WSJ.

"Public sector pay and corruption: Measuring bribery from micro data," with Klara Sabirianova Peter, Journal of Public Economics 91(2007), 963-991. Link (SSRN, IZA).

-        in media: World Bank’s Beyond Transition 17(3).

"Returns to schooling in Ukraine and Russia: A semiparametric approach to cross-country comparative analysis," with Klara Sabirianova Peter, Journal of Comparative Economics 33(2005), 223-240. Link (SSRN, IZA).

Working papers

"How Does Consumption Respond to News About Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial" with Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, and Maarten van Rooij, PDF (NBER, IZA)


"Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?" with Olivier Coibion, Saten Kumar, and Mathieu Pedemonte, PDF (NBER).

-        In media: Frankfurter Allgemeine, Bloomberg, Handelsblatt, WSJ, Bloomberg II, ECB.

"Do You Know That I Know That You Know…? Higher-order Beliefs in Survey Data," with Olivier Coibion, Saten Kumar, and Jane Ryngaert, PDF (NBER).

"Monetary policy communications and their effects on household inflation expectations," with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER).

-        In media: WSJ, Bloomberg, VoxEU.

"Unbundling of Quantitative Easing: Taking a Cue from Treasury Auctions," with Walker Ray, PDF (NBER).

"Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases," with Olivier Coibion and Dmitri Koustas, PDF (appendix, NBER, IZA). (revise and resubmit at AEJ Macroeconomics).

-        In media: Financial Post, NBER Digest, VoxEU.

"Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States," with Alan Auerbach and Daniel Murphy, PDF (NBER). (revise and resubmit at IMF Economic Review).

"Resource Misallocation in European Firms: The Role of Constraints, Firm Characteristics and Managerial Decisions," with Debora Revoltella, Jan Svejnar, and Christoph Weiss, PDF (NBER, IZA, CEPR).

-        in media: NBER Digest.

"Social media, sentiment and public opinions: Evidence from #Brexit and #USElection," with Tho Pham and Oleksandr Talavera, PDF (NBER).

-        in media: Time, WSJ, Huffington, Berkeley News.

"Conference presentations and academic publishing," with Tho Pham and Oleksandr Talavera, PDF.

"Linkages and Economic Development," with Dominick Bartelme, PDF (NBER).

"The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices," with Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Dmitri Koustas,  Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, Steve Tadelis, PDF (appendix).

-        in media: Econbrowser, Janet Yellen.

"Culture, Institutions and Democratization," with Gérard Roland, PDF (NBER, CEPR).

-        in media: VoxEU.org, Vedomosti. 

"Culture and Global Sourcing," with Bohdan Kukharskyy and Gérard Roland, PDF (NBER, CEPR).

-        in media: VoxEU.org. 

"Does Foreign Entry Spur Innovation?" with Jan Svejnar and Katherine Terrell, PDF (NBER, CEPR) (revise and resubmit at European Economic Review).

"Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence," PDF (NBER) (revise and resubmit at Journal of Monetary Economics).

"Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing," with Jae Song and Dmitriy Stolyarov, PDF (MRRC, NBER, IZA).

"Using the Survey of Plant Capacity to Measure Capital Utilization," with Matthew D. Shapiro, US Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies Discussion Paper 11-18 (July 2011).  PDF, data.

"Using firm optimization to evaluate and estimate productivity and returns to scale," PDF (NBER).

-        previous title: "Estimating Returns to Scale: Critique of Popular Estimators and New Solutions to Old Problems".

"Reduced rank identification of structural shocks in VARs," PDF.


Publications in Ukrainian


Contemporary econometric methods in finance, Kiev, Ukraine, 2002 (with Iryna Luckyanenko)

Econometric modeling of local government budgets, Kiev, Ukraine, 2001 (with Iryna Lukyanenko and Larisa Krasnikova)

Methodological aspects of development and application of macroeconometric models: The case of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine, 2000 (with Iryna Lukyanenko and Kwaja Sultan)



"Error correction models for forecasting tax revenues," Finance of Ukraine, 2001 (with Iryna Lukyanenko)

"The impact of tax sharing on the effectiveness of the local tax policy," Scientific Records of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, 2001 (with Taras Tokarchuk)

"The flypaper effect: The case of Ukraine," Scientific Records of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, 2001

"Modeling monetary side of Ukraine's economy," Scientific Records of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, 2000 (with Iryna Lukyanenko)

"Distribution of intergovernmental grants among Ukraine's regions," Herald of the National Bank of Ukraine, 1999 (with Iryna Lukyanenko)



"Inter-budgetary reform in Cherkaska oblast" in The system of public finance in Ukraine: The ways of providing transparency and optimal decentralization of financial flows, Ihor Burakovskiy, ed., Kiev: East-West Institute, 2001.